The document analyzes the current dynamics of the financial sector in relation to the situation in the economy, based on the IMF and World Bank (FSAP) assessment carried out in 2025. The experts confirmed the resilience of the Moldovan financial system to external shocks and its ability to support the real economy.
The assessment of systemic risks revealed, however, the persistence of vulnerabilities in the non-banking sector, as well as potential risks related to the real estate sector, climate change and digitalization. At the same time, exposure to external shocks, including geopolitical, energy and trade shocks, remains a significant challenge to the country’s financial system, although not as pronounced, the fund’s experts found.
Speaking about the probability of occurrence, the experts put the geopolitical risk in the first place, which is characterized by “high potential impact and a very difficult management task”. Macroeconomic risk is second in importance. Sovereign risk ranks third in the hierarchy of risks of “medium severity” for the financial system. Credit and cyber risks are not neglected, and regulatory and reputational risks remain likely.
The opinion of professional participants themselves about their stress resistance is not ignored either. Monitoring of systemic risks and the ability to respond if necessary is conducted by the National Bank every six months to obtain the views of risk managers of banks on the main risks of the financial system.
In the current survey, one respondent pointed out a new potential systemic risk – energy risk. It was rated as having “medium probability, low potential damage and relatively easy to manage”.
Most respondents identify the real economy (91%) and external events (91%) as potential sources of systemic risk, followed by the political sphere (73%). At the same time, respondents mention other potential sources of systemic risk: social sphere (55%), financial and banking sphere (36%) and real estate market (27%).
