The NBS later attributed the lack of timely publication of statistical press releases to the dissemination calendar and announced their postponement until after the election on September 30.
“The publications “Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2025” and “Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment for Q2 2025″ are postponed due to the implementation of the new Multifunctional Master Sample Survey (EMDOS 3), which is derived from the 2024 Census of Population and Housing.
This new sample array is being used for the Labor Force Survey and other household sociological surveys. In the first quarter of 2025, data were collected in parallel for two samples (EMDOS 2 and EMDOS 3). Interim results were published on the basis of the old sample, but now the data for the first quarter are being finalized in parallel using the new scheme.
This is taking longer, so the publication of the labor force data for the two quarters is delayed until the end of September. At the same time, since the results of this survey are also an important source for GDP estimation, especially when the shadow economy is taken into account, the publication of GDP data for the second quarter also requires additional time. The NBS apologizes for the postponement, emphasizing that the delay is related to ensuring the accuracy and quality of statistical information,” the official explanation of the agency on the reasons for the delay reads.
Economist Volodymyr Golovatyuk found it necessary to remind the NBS leadership of one truth known to the world leaders of statistics: the authority of statistics is difficult to achieve, but very easy to lose! “The situation in the economy is well known – a drop in production, a decline in the volume of activity in various sectors of the economy, a huge foreign trade deficit. This would inevitably affect the dynamics of GDP – after the recession in Q1 2025, the situation in Q2 would be no better. Further recession would have been expected. But we have not seen any official confirmation,” the expert wrote.
Expert Marina Solovieva is also shocked by the lack of information: “I have been engaged in financial and economic analysis for 30 years, and this is the FIRST time in my memory when the schedule of dissemination of economically important information is changed to serve the political interests of the authorities.”
According to her information, “already on 11.09.25 the NBS reported to the IMF about postponing the publication to the date not later than on 18.09.25”. And on 15.09.25, i.e., on the day of the announced publication on the departmental website, they did not even bother to warn us about it. Shifting the publication to the post-election time (30.09.25) under the pretext that “a new sample was used in the labor force questionnaire, and because of this the results of the questionnaire were late, and they are needed to calculate GDP in the informal economy” in this case does not cause confidence, the expert believes.
Experts remind that accounting of the shadow economy in GDP is always done indirectly, as it is not reflected in official statistics, but can be estimated using various statistical methods. The Italian method of estimating the number of those employed in the informal sector based on sampling to calculate jobs, income and expenditures hidden from taxation is not the only one.
The most common are the specific indicator method and the currency or cash demand method. The latter is based on the assumption that an increase in the demand for cash indicates an increase in shadow activity, as such funds are used for settlements outside the official system. And the central bank statistics provides monthly information on money synthesis, which can undoubtedly serve as a reliable basis for the movement of money in the economy, including shadow economy.
