Olga Gagauz
An extensive study by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) found that the demographic crisis was not based on people’s free choice, but on “inadequate policy decisions” that failed to provide “economic security and personal opportunity.”
In the study, 54% of respondents cited “economic problems” such as lack of affordable housing, jobs, access to childcare, lack of money, etc. as the main obstacles to having children and creating large families. For 24% of respondents, health problems and the impossibility of solving them are at the top of the list. Another 19% explain their reluctance to have children by “fear of the future”.
According to Natalia Kanem, Executive Director of the organization, “policy measures should be aimed directly at solving the problems of specific people. Within the framework of the study, UNFPA experts interviewed more than 14,000 people in 14 countries on 5 continents, where one third of the world’s population lives.
In four of these countries – Nigeria, Morocco, South Africa and Indonesia – the average number of births per woman exceeds the replacement rate of 2.1. The study found that the majority of respondents would like to have two or more children. And 31% of respondents aged over 50 said they have fewer children than they would like.
The total fertility rate in Moldova, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, has been around 1.6-1.65 children per woman in recent years. In 2024, it increased slightly to 1.66 live births per woman. But it still remains well below the replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). In 2002, it reached a minimum value of 1.43.
In 2024, 23.6 thousand children will be born, which is about 0.5 thousand (-2.0%) less than in the previous year. At the same time, the average age of a first-born mother is increasing annually – in 2024 it amounted to 26.8 years, increasing compared to 2023 (25.3 years).
According to Olga Gagauz, head of the Center for Demographic Research, official statistics underestimates the total fertility rate, which led to the country’s classification as a low-low fertility country. The transformation of fertility, of course, occurs according to the general pattern characteristic of most countries, but is characterized by a lower rate of decline.
“For conditional generations, fertility has settled at the level of 1.6-1.65 births per woman, while for real generations that have completed or are in the stage of completion of the reproductive period – at the level of 1.9-2.0 births”, – says Olga Gagauz. Based on the results of her study, the expert concludes that Moldova does not belong to countries with low or very low fertility. And the preservation of a higher birth rate, compared to other countries, is determined by the predominance of people from rural areas in the overall structure of the population.
The only paradoxical conclusion that emerges is that Moldovan women are concerned about the continuation of the birth rate despite economic problems and uncertainty about the future, which they overcome through internal migration from rural areas or external migration from the country. The only problem is to make sure that there is someone to take care of reproduction in the long run.
Olga Gagauz:
– Despite the fact that the final fertility of real generations remains at a relatively high level, close to the replacement of generations, the reduction of the population at young ages as a result of migration inevitably leads to a reduction in the number of births for calendar years. This will have serious socio-economic and demographic consequences for the country in the near and medium term.
The decline in the birth rate in Moldova is a natural tendency caused by the second demographic transition that started in the countries of Eastern Europe in the mid-90s of the last century. Compared to other countries, this decline started from higher levels. However, already in the early 2000s, the CEB decreased to levels comparable with other post-Soviet countries in the European region.
