At the monthly meeting on May 3 via videoconference, the 8 OPEC+ countries, called “volunteer countries”, decided to increase oil production by 411 thousand barrels per day in June 2025. It was decided to increase production by the same amount in May 2025 at the meeting of the eight a month ago.
In the message of the OPEC Secretariat on the results of the meeting it is emphasized that the current market conditions in the world oil market are favorable for adjusting production upward.
The eight “volunteer countries” of OPEC+ include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. In April 2023, they voluntarily decided to reduce oil production by 1.65 million barrels per day to stabilize the oil market and maintain the price level. In November of the same year 2023, they agreed to increase the level of reduction to 2.2 million barrels per day. It was assumed that the reduction would be in effect until the end of 2026.
However, OPEC+ countries have now concluded at their meeting that the global oil market is recovering at a record pace, so there is no reason to further curb production.
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil consumption rose by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, a record increase since 2023.
However, at the same time, oil prices have not started to rise, as it happens with the growth of consumption, but on the contrary, they are declining. Because of this, the profits of oil-producing countries began to fall, and they decided to react to this situation.
It is difficult to predict how this will affect the oil market. On the one hand, the increase in production should lead to a further drop in prices. But the participants of the meeting came to the conclusion that there are too many geopolitical risks and points of tension, including in oil producing regions, which affects the instability of the global oil market. Therefore, prices may rise.
