The main reasons for the correction were the expectation of a good harvest and weaker consumption. Chocolate producers, who purchased cocoa at record prices, raised retail prices in advance and partially changed recipes, reducing the share of expensive raw materials.
As a result, at the end of 2025, cocoa processing volumes in Europe fell by about 3%, the largest decline in 11 years. No significant growth in demand is expected in either Europe or Asia, as it is not economically viable for companies to return to previous recipes.
Additional pressure was created by overproduction. In December, warehouses in Côte d’Ivoire, the largest exporter of cocoa, were overflowing. Producers in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana appealed to the authorities for support. Against the backdrop of increased supply, quotations continued to decline. The Ivorian authorities are even considering suspending purchases of the new crop in an attempt to keep prices above the futures level.
What is happening to coffee prices
Coffee futures have lost about 29.5% of their value over the year. In early February, they reached their lowest levels in six months on expectations of a record arabica crop in Brazil thanks to favorable weather. In 2026, Arabica production may grow by more than 23% and Robusta by about 6%.
Pressure has been exacerbated by rising exports from Vietnam: in January 2026, shipments of Robusta increased by more than 38% year-on-year. Active supply from Vietnam and Indonesia is shifting traders’ interest towards more affordable Robusta and putting additional pressure on Arabica prices.
The US trade policy has also played its role. In spring 2025, the administration of President Donald Trump imposed duties on coffee imports from Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, which led to higher prices for American consumers and reorganization of logistics, Izvestia writes.
However, in November 2025, some of the tariffs were lifted, including duties on coffee. Although this has supported the market, the effects of previous restrictions are still being felt.
At the same time, in recent months, there has been a partial recovery in prices: Brazil has reduced exports of Arabica and Robusta, which was facilitated by the strengthening of the national currency and a change in sales strategy – producers are increasingly selling green and roasted coffee on their own.
What this means for consumers
Coffee and cocoa markets remain volatile. They are affected by weather patterns, climate change, plantation conditions and investment in tree renewal, which has been limited in recent years due to low farmer returns. The current decline in futures suggests that speculative price increases have exhausted themselves: high price levels have begun to curb demand and producers are more actively seeking alternatives to raw materials.
For the chocolate market, the effect of cocoa cheapening in the next six months will be limited – companies continue to use raw materials purchased at high prices. Some price reductions in some countries are more likely to be due to the currency factor.
The cost of coffee also depends not only on world quotations, but also on the exchange rate of national currencies of importing countries. If the harvest does turn out to be high and demand remains moderate, retail prices may gradually stabilize or decline. However, the market is still sensitive to weather and geopolitical risks, so sharp fluctuations cannot be ruled out.
