Vyacheslav Ionitsa
According to the authors of the study – IDIS Viitorul and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Moldova – the most serious problems in the economic sphere are inflation and decline in purchasing power, trade deficit and reduction of export structure, dependence on remittances, and outflow of personnel. Reduced foreign investment, vulnerability of energy supply and low labor productivity contribute to this. In the SME sector, they note labor shortages, tax problems and limited access to finance, corruption and low levels of entrepreneurial training.
Analyzing today’s realities, Veaceslav Ionita concludes that Moldova’s economy has entered a recession, as its growth has been almost zero for five years and the economic weakness is comparable in scale to the crisis of the 90s.
The expert believes this happened in 2024, when GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters. “Recession is not an isolated phenomenon, but a reflection of the weakness of the economy, which cannot overcome systemic problems, he said. – Over the last 5 years, Moldova’s GDP has grown by only 0.4%. For 2025, it is forecasted to grow no more than 1%, which means stagnation. The main fall was in agriculture – by 7 billion lei, as well as in industry – by 3 billion lei. Over the past five years, production in industry has fallen by 1.3% and in agriculture by 2.8%. Exports decreased by almost $500 million, and this trend continues.
“We have gone from being oil exporters to sunflower seed exporters and oil importers. The trade balance in agriculture has become negative – this has not happened for decades,” Veaceslav Ionitsa emphasized. The number of employed in the economy has decreased to 808 thousand people. This is the minimum level for the analyzed period. An important pressure factor is the rise in energy prices. Foreign investments decreased from $4.9 billion to $4.8 billion, and by this indicator Moldova remains the country with the least investments per capita in Eastern Europe. Public debt increased from 124.6 billion to 131.2 billion lei, with much of the borrowing being used for consumption rather than development.”
