The NBU’s inflation report for October 2025 forecasts that the budget deficit will reach 25 percent of GDP by the end of the year, which is due to an increase in defense spending, Economic Pravda has said. At the same time, the National Bank expects that the volume of international aid will be sufficient to finance Ukraine’s budget deficit emission-free.
For 2026, the NBU expects Ukraine’s budget deficit to fall to 19% of GDP, and in 2027 – to 14% of GDP.
The report contains forecasts for the volume of international aid for this year and the next two years. The NBU expects Ukraine to receive $51.5bn of support from external partners in 2025, more than $45bn in 2026 and $39bn in 2027.
Despite the impressiveness of these amounts, the National Bank is confident that the country’s international reserves will remain at an adequate level, sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. By the end of 2025, the reserves should grow to $53.6 bln, and in 2027 will exceed $59 bln, the NBU forecasts.
The NBU’s clarification that the printing press will not have to be turned on is relevant from the point of view of keeping inflation from galloping growth. Logos Press reported that earlier the IMF demanded that Ukraine devalue the hryvnia in order to increase budget revenues. But the NBU and the country’s authorities oppose such a scenario to avoid uncontrolled inflation growth.
