Vyacheslav Ionitsa
Catching up with growth
Export growth has continued for six months now. In December, it grew by 30.4%. But before that, there were almost three years of decline. So on a cumulative basis, compared to 2022, it is down 13%.
The structure of exports in 2025 was dominated by:
– Oilseeds and fruits – 15.5%;
– electrical machinery, equipment and their parts – 15.1%;
– vegetables and fruits – 11.4%;
– cereals and products based on them – 8%;
– clothing and accessories – 8%;
– alcoholic and soft drinks – 5.9%.
The analysis of the commodity structure of exports in 2025 allows us to conclude that its growth in the second half of the year by 23% and by 6.4% for the year as a whole was almost entirely due to the export of food products and agricultural raw materials.
While exports as a whole increased by $228 million in absolute figures, supplies of agricultural products in fresh and processed form grew by $214 million, providing 94% of the growth.
This was entirely a consequence of favorable climatic conditions, which resulted in a good harvest for many crops, as a result of which crop production increased by more than 20%.
“So, the increase in export potential was due to favorable natural conditions and there can be no question that the growth of exports in 2025 was the result of the government’s reforms to support the export-oriented sector of the economy in general and agrarians in particular and in particular,” concludes economist Volodymyr Golovatyuk.
Moldova exported most of all to the EU countries – 67.5% of the total volume. In monetary terms, exports to the EU amounted to $2.6 billion, which is 6.8% more than in 2024.
The main export destinations in 2025 were Romania – 29% of the total volume, Turkey – 9.9%, Italy – 9.2%, Czech Republic – 8.2%, Ukraine – 7.9%, Germany – 4%, Bulgaria – 3.3%, Poland – 3%, Russia – 2.8%.
At the same time, it should be noted that exports to the EU are practically at the level of 2022, i.e. they have not practically increased for three years. Exports to the EU-27 in 2022 amounted to $2.54 billion, which is only $60 million less than last year.
By the way, exports to the most important trading partners in 2025 were lower than in 2022 – to Romania by 12%, to Germany by 35%, to Poland by 8%.
One can understand why exports to Russia are declining after 2022. But why exports to the above-mentioned EU countries are decreasing and exports to the EU as a whole have not grown at all, despite the abolition of duties on seven agricultural products and other declared indulgences?
After all, all this is happening after signing the Association Agreement with the EU and after Moldova received the status of a candidate country for EU accession.
Imports are coming
Imports of goods amounted to $10.9 billion – 20.5% more than a year earlier. Purchases abroad exceed exports not only in volume, but also in growth rate. Exports grew by 6.4% and imports by 21%.
As a result, the volume of imports exceeded the size of exports by 2.9 times, although for most of the year the ratio was more than 3:1.
It should be noted that this is the largest excess of imports over exports in the history of RM, except for 2008.
What we imported:
– Gas and industrial products derived from gas – 9.1%;
– oil, petroleum products and related products – 8.7%;
– motor vehicles – 8.2%;
– electrical machinery, equipment and parts thereof – 7%;
– electricity – 4.3%.
As explained by IDIS Viitorul economist Veaceslav Ionita, the significant increase in imports is due to the rise in the price of energy resources, as well as an increase in the supply of food products.
Record deficit
In 2025, the foreign trade deficit amounted to $7.1 billion, 47% of which is attributable to the EU, 1% to the CIS and 52% to other countries.
In other words, Moldova has not turned into a market for goods produced in the EU, as some claim. Massive supplies are also coming from some other countries.
In terms of individual countries, it should be noted that in terms of trade with only five countries, the foreign trade deficit increased by a total of $1.508 billion, which is 92.6% of the total increase. These are Romania, Germany, Poland, China and the United States.
And since we are talking not only about energy, but also about food products, it is worth noting that we are gradually ceasing to produce and are increasingly starting to buy goods and products that we used to make and grow ourselves abroad.
Where does the money come from?
The trade deficit, with imports exceeding exports almost three times, shows that Moldova does not earn as much as it spends.
So where does the money come from to buy imported goods?
Veaceslav Ionita names three main sources: loans and grants from external sources, remittances from the diaspora, and a trade surplus when services are exported.
“In 2025, Moldova’s trade balance deficit will exceed 30% of GDP. Even taking into account that small economies usually run higher deficits, this level can no longer be considered a mere structural imbalance – it is a serious vulnerability. In relative terms, Moldova is operating with a deficit almost 15 times higher than what is considered a historical achievement for the United States,” says the economist.
He concludes: “In a world where major economies are aggressively reducing trade deficits, Moldova risks remaining highly vulnerable to currency, financial and social risks.
