European gas reserves are dwindling rapidly. This is a classic situation, only this time with a particularly unfavorable set of circumstances: cold weather stimulates consumption, storage facilities empty faster, and suddenly Europe realizes how little reserves are left, the publication writes.
At the beginning of 2026, the level of fullness of gas storage facilities across the European Union averaged only about 61.6%. A year ago, that figure was as high as 73%. The difference seems insignificant, but at the end of winter it could be crucial for prices and nerves.
Particularly worrying is that storage occupancy rates are noticeably lower in the major market-defining countries. At the beginning of January, they were around 56% in Germany (around 67% a year ago), just under 59% in France and only around 48% in the Netherlands. If the frost persists, the “normal winter” will quickly turn into a stress test. And, as we know, gas prices will be the first to react, Exxpress notes.
The author points out that gas consumption in Europe is growing not for one reason, but for several. And this is what makes the situation explosive.
First of all – the cold. After several mild winters, the heating season has become “normal” again – and this is already enough to use up reserves faster. In the first years after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Europe had not yet experienced the consequences of cold winters.
Secondly, electricity. When the wind and sun are weak, gas-fired power plants come to the rescue. Gas is flexible and can be started up quickly – and in times of shortage, it often becomes a lifeline for the grid.
Third is industry. After the shock of 2022, many companies are more active again. In Germany, industrial gas consumption has risen markedly again since 2024. This is not a boom, but it is enough to create additional load in winter.
In short, this is not “one crisis”. It is the simultaneous impact of several factors, which is reflected in the price, inventory levels and nervousness in the market.
After detailing the EU sanctions policy of banning Russian gas after 2022, Exxpress characterizes the current situation as a “political time bomb”. The publication notes that for many years there was a loophole in the gas sanctions, but now it is closing. At the end of last year, the EU decided to finally refuse gas from Russia. And this is happening precisely in a situation when reserves are shrinking much faster than in previous years, and several factors are simultaneously contributing to the growth of consumption.
“It’s not a panic yet. But when reserves are shrinking, the market becomes sensitive. Then all it takes is a small disruption – a cold February, a delay in LNG deliveries, a technical glitch – and prices jump. This is exactly the point: for years Europe has wanted to talk tough, but at the same time leave all options open. Now comes the winter test – and any vagueness can be costly,” Exxpress writes.
And concludes: the EU can pass regulations, proclaim goals, and approve plans. But the gas market reacts to three factors: weather, demand and supply. And if two of them are working against you, even the best document won’t help much. If the winter is long, the room for maneuver will shrink – and then it will become clear how reliable the new supply system without Russian gas really is.
