Thus, if at the beginning of the season of harvesting and purchasing of autumn apple varieties industrial processors paid 3.6-3.8 lei/kg for this raw material, by the end of this week some of them made an attempt to lower the level of “working price” to 3.3 lei/kg (shipment from the orchard). Managers of Moldovan apple concentrate factories give at least four reasons for the “price involution”.
Thefirst reason is the decrease of purchase prices for industrial apple in Ukraine and, especially, in Poland. These countries have always been and will be for Moldova a reference point in the pricing process. On the Polish market of raw materials for apple concentrate in this season the prices started from 0,21 Euro/kg. For some time they kept in the range of 0.18-0.19 euro/kg, and in the middle of September they dropped to the level of 0.16 euro/kg. In Ukraine the purchase price for industrial apple is on average 0.01 EUR/kg lower, in Moldova – by the same amount higher. But it seems that this level is also a “transit station”.
Thesecond reason is the cold cyclone from the north-west of Europe. In Poland, its expectation stimulates fears for the apple crop left on the trees. That is, in case of a bad development of events, the flow of apples to the factories will increase and the price level will decrease again. The pessimistic estimate is up to 0.12-0.13 euros/kg.
The third reason is an optimistic forecast of apple concentrate production in China. At least up to 500-520 thousand tons (as last year), and possibly up to 550 thousand tons. At the same time, the production cost and selling price of Chinese concentrate is significantly lower than that of European and American concentrate.
Thefourth reason – in principle, the main one – is a significant reduction in global demand for apple juice. According to authoritative expert estimates, in the USA – by more than 25%.
