This is stated in the Commission’s new Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast. It notes that economic activity in Moldova picked up in the first half of 2025, supported by strong growth in private investment, while energy compensation payments, which began in the first quarter of 2025, helped mitigate the impact of rising energy prices on private consumption.
Net exports are expected to continue to weigh on GDP, but gross product growth is projected to reach 1.6% in 2025 and strengthen to 3.7% in 2027, supported by solid growth in private consumption and spending under the Reform and Growth Fund.
The government deficit is projected to remain broadly stable in 2025, but widen to nearly 5% of GDP due to the implementation of the Reform Program and investments supported under the Fund. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase over the forecast horizon.
At the same time, strong private investment growth has been supported by policy measures such as zero tax rate on reinvested profits of SMEs and more favorable financing conditions.
