The Ministry of Finance released the draft Budget Law for 2026 on the evening of December 2. The authors of the document indicate “maintaining moderate economic growth, ensuring macroeconomic stability and consolidation of the budget and taxes” as the main objectives of the document. They are based on the macroeconomic scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization.
In 2026, the ministry forecasts that the gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms will grow by 2.4%, or by 377.2 billion lei, compared to 2025. According to the Finance Ministry’s estimates, the National Public Budget’s revenues will increase by 7.3 percent against the preliminary amount expected in 2025. Expenditures will grow by 9.0%, while the budget deficit will reach the level of 5.7% of GDP. It exceeds the figure for the current year.
The government expects economic growth to accelerate in 2026 due to improved external conditions, higher productivity, advancement of structural reforms and intensification of investments in the course of European integration. These processes will be accelerated as the European Union-backed growth plan is implemented.
To achieve this goal, the government has envisioned over 50 reforms. At the same time, the cabinet has defined a portfolio of strategic investment projects as engines of economic growth. The largest allocations will go to the development of transport (31.6%) and energy (25.5%), reflecting the priorities of infrastructure modernization and transition to renewable energy. This is followed by the environmental sector (12.9%), regional development (8.9%), agriculture (6.0%) and support for the private sector (4.7%), as well as the social spheres: education (4.2%) and health (3.0%).
Among the main fiscal policy measures, the authors emphasize the improvement of tax and customs administration, including strengthening the fight against the shadow economy, measures to reduce energy vulnerability through compensations for vulnerable consumers, adjustment of social payments, including the minimum pension and other benefits financed from the state budget.
The Ministry of Finance leaves the share of national public budget revenues in GDP at 35.4% – at the level of the current year. Although previously it was noted the need to increase it over the next few years. At the same time, this share is higher than that fixed in 2023 and 2024 – 33.7% and 34.1%, respectively. In terms of revenue structure, tax collections will account for 61.3%, insurance premiums – 31.6%, other revenues – 5.3%, grants 1.8%.
At the same time, the share of expenditures in GDP is increasing. This year the pre-set figure is 40.42% and next year it will be 41.08%. At the same time, it is noticeably higher than the figures of previous years. Namely: 39.2% in 2023 and 37.9% in 2024. Of these, economic expenditures will account for 10% of the total amount, the authorities will allocate 13.8% for health care, 2.9% for housing, 6% for public order and national security, 15.8% for education, and so on. Social expenditures will account for the largest amount – 38.4%.
