Ilon Musk
But behind the ambitious claims are serious technological risks and massive investments on which the future of the space launch economy depends, notes benzinga.com.
Price matters
According to the publication, SpaceX is developing Starship V3 as a fully reusable system about 120 meters high with a potential payload of up to 150 tons into low orbit. The goal is to reduce launch costs by a multiple and provide mass access to space.
“I’m highly confident Starship V3 will achieve full reusability,” Ilon Musk said, specifying that implementation will be gradual.
Despite the optimism, analysts note: achieving full reusability requires perfect synchronization of the return of the Super Heavy booster and the ship itself, as well as multiple tests of the heat shield and Raptor engines. Each test launch represents tens of millions of dollars in costs.
According to industry experts, the total investment in the Starship program has already exceeded $5 billion, and further refinement of the V3 may require even more significant investments. At the same time, a potential reduction in launch costs to $10-20 million is possible only with a high frequency of launches and mass production.
The trillion-dollar market and the uncertainty factor
Reusability is key to scaling the business, from commercial satellites to NASA missions and the Martian program. However, high capital intensity makes the project sensitive to regulatory constraints, technical failures and demand fluctuations.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the global space economy could exceed $1 trillion by 2040, but the distribution of that revenue will depend on the ability of players to ensure the reliability and frequency of launches, benzinga.com notes.
For investors, Musk’s statement is both a signal of opportunity and a reminder of the risks. The success of Starship V3 has the potential to radically reshape the industry, but delays or accidents could lead to higher costs and revised payback periods.
In this way, Starship remains one of the most ambitious engineering projects of the 21st century – and also one of the most financially sensitive. Near-term tests will show whether SpaceX can turn a technological promise into a sustainable business model.
