First signs of gas crisis in Europe affect Moldova
Transnistria is a pro-Russian region of Moldova that seceded from the former Soviet republic in the early 1990s. Until recently, this Russian-speaking region received natural gas from Russia virtually free of charge and produced electricity, which it also supplied to Moldova. This stopped in 2024 when Ukraine refused to renew its gas transit contract with Russia’s Gazprom. The termination of that contract caused a serious gas shortage in Transnistria until the country switched to European gas suppliers – at a higher price, writes oilprice.com.
Grosu: it’s just a matter of price
The breakaway region has since been receiving gas from Europeans, but now that the effects of the war in the Middle East are becoming more prominent, there is a decline in available volumes, according to a report Reuters.
“Due to the events in the Middle East, there have been critical disruptions in gas supplies,” Transnistria’s economic development ministry said, adding that “the sharp reduction in gas volumes has led to restrictions on its use for commercial or heating purposes”
Interestingly, the report also quoted Moldovan parliament speaker Igor Grosu as saying that Transnistria had been short of gas for only a few days. He also added: “Ask them what they would choose – gas every day, even if it becomes more expensive, or to do without it for schools, kindergartens or homes?” The question suggests that gas affordability is just a matter of ability to pay, not a supply shortage, according to Reuters reporters.
Gas prices in Europe have doubled
However, gas prices in Europe have doubled in less than a week, with the intraday TTF contract topping €60 per megawatt hour at the start of this week. As of Wednesday, the TTF price for the April futures contract stood at €48.77 per megawatt-hour.
As of today, March 6, 2026, TTF gas prices in Europe are showing an upward trend, holding at a level already above €52 per MWh. According to Trading Economics, the price is around €52.32-52.55 per MWh.
It is expected that prices could rise by another 40-50% due to supply disruptions from Qatar, reports The Moscow Times Russian service.
“The first signs of gas supply problems in the region are emerging, with Moldova’s unrecognized Transnistrian region warning that it could be without gas within days,” the Moscow Times wrote Trading Economics analysts.
Analysts expect European gas stocks could end March at just 22-27% of capacity, well below the five-year average of about 41%. If less LNG arrives in the next four weeks, inventory levels could fall further, increasing the risk of supply shortages. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has said it is considering several measures to address soaring energy prices.
Why is this happening?
The spike in gas prices followed Iranian strikes on Qatari LNG facilities, forcing QatarEnergy to shut down its entire LNG production system. A couple days later, the company declared force majeure on LNG exports. Since Qatar accounts for a fifth of the world’s LNG flows, these events had an immediate impact on prices.
Europe is the continent most vulnerable to gas supply shocks. After reducing its reliance on Russian pipeline gas, the European Union has become heavily dependent on offshore LNG imports, and Qatar is one of its largest suppliers. Some observers note that there is enough U.S. liquefied natural gas for everyone, but it will not be sold at a price set by buyers. With the suspension of Qatar’s LNG production, the LNG market is completely under the control of sellers, which means that European gas importers will face new inflationary problems.
Neither Germany nor the UK will be short-changed
Smaller EU member states and other European countries such as Moldova are in some ways more vulnerable to gas crises because they are poorer than larger EU economies and therefore have less flexibility in their gas supplies. However, the consequences of another gas crisis could be perhaps more devastating for large economies such as Germany, which are considered the backbone of the European Union, of which Moldova aspires to become a member by 2030.
Qatar supplies between 12% and 14% of natural gas to the European Union. “Europe is much less dependent on Gulf oil and LNG than China, India, Japan or South Korea, but it is not immune,” said energy think tank Bruegel. Alas, less direct dependence does not mean less price dependence. Whether anyone likes it or not, Europe will feel the consequences of disruptions in LNG supplies from Transnistria to the UK, says Charles Kennedy, an expert at oilprice.com.
Tofilat: Moldovan consumers will not even notice this crisis
In contrast, Moldovan energy market expert Sergiu Tofilat believes that the residents of Right-Bank Moldova will not be affected by these events.
Speaking about natural gas tariffs on the air of a Moldovan TV channel, the expert suggested that the current price hikes on the world exchanges, caused by the situation in the Persian Gulf, will not have a significant impact on end consumers. Since the heating season is coming to an end, emergency gas purchases are not advisable now.
“I don’t see the point in panicking and urgently purchasing gas – consumption is low now, and fluctuations over several days or weeks have little impact on the final tariff. The tariff is calculated for a year, so such fluctuations are felt insignificantly. I think that in a few weeks the situation will return to normal,” Tofilat said.
