About this writes Cointelegraph with reference to Fidelity Digital Assets.
Analyst Zach Wainwright noted that in the past after reaching historic highs (ATH) quotes of the first cryptocurrency collapsed by 80-90%. Now the drawdowns after the peak are not so deep, and in the future this trend is likely to continue.
Change in market dynamics
According to Wainwright, when evaluating price dynamics relative to previous peaks, there is a decline in the return on investment in digital gold.
“With each new cycle, growth becomes less impulsive. The risk of a deep fall in 2026 has also decreased,” the expert emphasized.
On February 6, bitcoin reached the potential bottom of the current cycle near the $60,000 mark. This is 52% below the historic high near $126,000, recorded on October 6. Now the asset is trading 45% below the peak values of six months ago.
During the previous bear market, the decline was deeper. Back then, quotes fell 77% – from a 2021 high of $69,000 to values below $16,000 in November 2022.
Is the bottom already at the end of September?
A shallower drawdown indicates a maturing market, lower volatility and increased confidence from institutional investors, LVRG Research director Nick Ruck said in a commentary to the publication.
“Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset to a more stable savings vehicle. Going forward, this paves the way for its widespread adoption,” he added.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted that bitcoin’s local high was reached on day 534 after the halving – much faster than in the previous cycle.
“Fading patterns” indicates the formation of a market bottom between day 912 and 922 after the reduction of the reward to miners. The expert estimates that this phase is expected to occur in late September or early October 2026.
