Globally, the outcome of the Indian tender means that the major nitrogen fertilizer sellers (UAE, Qatar, Egypt, etc.) will have to slightly reduce export prices for their products. Indirectly, farmers in Eastern Europe may also benefit from lower global prices for imported fertilizers.
According to Yuriy Rizha, an expert in agri-food marketing, urea prices in the Romanian port of Constanta may reach $400-410/t under the influence of the Indian tender results. Taking into account port and transport logistics, tax payments, merchants’ margins and other expenses, by the time of delivery to Moldovan farmers’ warehouses, the price of this fertilizer will exceed 9.9 thousand lei/t. If by spring the world price of nitrogen fertilizers drops below $380/t, which there are some preconditions for, Moldovan farmers will see offers to sell this product on the local market at prices below 9,000 lei/t.
According to some market operators, reduction of nitrogen fertilizer prices for spring field works is also possible due to potential expansion of the range of suppliers and supplies of this commodity, in particular, from Turkmenistan and Ukraine.
