This situation may require the National Bank to intervene, experts believe. The imbalance of export-import operations leads to an increase in the outflow of currency from the country and creates a threat of its deficit. “It will inevitably lead and is already leading to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves, as well as – to problems in the foreign exchange market. Which in general cannot but affect the stability of the leu,” says economist Volodymyr Golovatyuk.
According to the expert, the decline in exports not only continues, but also intensifies. In January 2025, it decreased by 11%, while in February – by 18%. Moreover, it decreased in all directions – to the CIS countries by 29%, to the EU – by 17%, to other countries – by 17%.
“Such dynamics of exports indicates serious problems in the economy. The reduction in the supply of goods abroad indicates a decline in domestic production. Professionally speaking, the domestic supply of goods is shrinking. Including – for export.
We should also note not just a significant trade deficit, but an ever-widening gap between exports and imports. While exports fell, imports rose by 16% in February. As a result, while in February 2024 imports exceeded exports by a factor of 2.3, in February 2025 imports exceeded exports by a factor of 3.3. – already 3.3 times. The rate of strengthening of the gap looks frightening,” the expert believes.
