This fact has caused a change in market assessment by commentators and analysts monitoring the situation on the gas market – from the previously dominant term “turbulence” they are increasingly switching to characterizing the situation as “critically tense”.
The main source of tension is the low level of gas reserves in Europe’s underground gas storage facilities, with a rather high rate of gas withdrawals from UGS due to the persistent cold weather.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), UGS storage capacity is at around 33% full, which is historically low for mid-February and well below the average of previous years.
Reserves vary by country
However, overall stocks in Europe are like the average temperature of a hospital. Market analysts emphasize the fact that the largest gas consumers crossed the “red line”, i.e. the level of UGS filling by last summer, much earlier than the European average.
In particular, Germany and Austria started taking gas from last year’s reserves as early as February 5, and the Netherlands – on February 8.
As a result, according to GIE data, as of February 16, German UGS facilities were filled only by 22.99%, in France – by 23.56%. And the “record” was set by the Netherlands – 14.3%. In fact, in this case we are talking about the remnants of “technical gas”, which is almost impossible to pump out.
However, Austria’s UGS reserves remain even higher than the European average – 39.04%.
Despite these alarming figures, regulators of almost all European countries assure: the situation is under control, no gas shortages are to be expected this winter, the energy supply system can withstand the load and no special shocks are to be expected until spring.
Trends and prospects
But the upcoming warm season replenishment of gas reserves for the winter period of 2026-27 may turn out to be a troublesome and nervous affair.
As gurufocus.com notes, geopolitical tensions and the security risks of offshore LNG routes will be the main challenges for the European gas market.
If we analyze all the factors that will affect the speed and cost of building gas reserves in Europe during the summer, we can highlight a few key points:
- Low inventory levels after the winter: As of February 2026, German and EU storage reserves have fallen to record lows, which will require more injection in the summer.
- Competition for LNG: Rising demand for LNG in China and India, as well as possible cooling in Asia, will limit gas availability for Europe, driving up prices.
- EU’s decision to cut gas from Russia altogether: Russian gas remained an important source of replenishment via Turkish Stream even after transit through Ukraine ceased on January 1, 2025. These volumes will now have to be obtained from other sources.
- LNG infrastructure disruptions: Regasification at LNG terminals can be unstable, as observed in Germany in early 2026.
- Geopolitical risks: Possible disruption of LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- EU regulation: The requirement to fill UGS to 90% by November could force Europe to buy gas at high prices.
