China's exports accelerate sharply in early 2026 and beat analysts' forecasts
The result was significantly higher than economists’ forecasts, who had expected an increase in shipments of about 7.1%, according to data from a Reuters poll. Total exports for the two months reached $656.6 billion, while imports rose by 19.8% to $442.9 billion. As a result, China’s trade surplus increased to $213.6 billion, up markedly from the same period last year.
Exports have become the key driver of the economy
Economists note that the main driver of growth was strong global sales of technology products. Shipments of integrated circuits, electronics, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar panels increased particularly rapidly.
Strong external demand is supported by the global investment boom in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. China’s semiconductor exports are estimated to have grown about 66.5 percent, the fastest growth in a decade.
“The growth in shipments of integrated circuits and other high-tech products looks quite expected amid the global investment boom in artificial intelligence,” Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented for Reuters.
According to analysts, such a strong start to the year may allow China to once again approach a record trade surplus. It has already reached an all-time high of about $1.2 trillion in 2025.
An additional driver of growth has been the expansion of trade with a number of regions. China’s exports to Southeast Asia, Europe and South Korea increased by more than 27% at the beginning of the year, partially offsetting tensions in trade relations with the United States.
Experts believe that the sustainability of China’s exports may maintain the role of foreign trade as a key driver of the country’s economic growth in 2026, despite weak domestic demand and problems in the real estate market.
