Olga Gagauz
If in 2025 the number of citizens in the age category of 80 years and above was about 55 thousand people, then by 2040, against the background of population decline, it may grow to 130-155 thousand people, depending on the scenario of the demographic situation.
In this case, the total population by 2040 will amount to: under the low scenario – 1.859 million people; under the medium scenario – 1.973 million; under the high scenario – 2.107 million people.
These projections were recently released by the Gheorghe Paladi Center for Demographic Research, which is authorized by the government to develop official demographic projections that are recommended to ministries for use in strategic planning.
People aged 80 and over may become 3 times more numerous
“In 2040, more than 50% of the population will be aged 50 and over, while younger generations will be underrepresented. While in 2025 the proportion of people aged 65 and over was 17.7%, in 2040 it will reach 25.8% and the proportion of people aged 60 and over will exceed 30%. The age structure of the population will change. The number of people aged 80 and older will increase significantly; the generation born in the 60s and 70s of the last century will reach this age. I would like to note that these generations are alive, they do not participate in migration, and these calculations are quite accurate, they should be taken into account when developing appropriate policies,” said Olga Gagauz, Dr. Hab.
Young people are becoming fewer in number and, moreover, they are the most active participants in international migration. This phenomenon causes domestic scientists serious concern.
According to the latest data of the UN Economic Department, the number of Moldovan migrants abroad has reached 864 thousand people, of which about 55% are in the EU countries. The number of Moldovans who have obtained citizenship of EU countries only in 2020-2023 is about 70 thousand.
“This trend demonstrates that Moldovans are settling for permanent residence in EU countries, and obtaining citizenship shows the completion of legal and social integration in these countries. Moreover, at the end of 2024, 198,477 Moldovan citizens had valid residence permits in EU countries,” Gagauz said.
Only in 2022-2024, net negative migration amounted to more than 170 thousand people.
In anticipation of reduced migration
However, the center makes an optimistic prediction: a significant reduction in migration. For example, under the low scenario – which is the most likely – the reduction in migration by 2040 will be about 30%, while the high scenario (less likely) predicts a 90% reduction in migration.
The Center also predicts an increase in life expectancy at birth, which is already rising.
In conclusion, Olga Gagauz noted that the state policy should be adjusted to current and projected demographic trends.
