On March 30, aluminum quotations on the London Metal Exchange rose sharply by about 6%, approaching the level of $3500 per ton. This marked the strongest one-day rise since 2022, writes Bloomberg. At the same time, shares of producers rose in price: Australian South32 and Aluminum Corporation of China showed significant growth on the stock markets.
The reason for the jump was the reports about the damage of the largest enterprises of the region. Emirates Global Aluminium said serious damage was reported at its Abu Dhabi facility, while Aluminium Bahrain began assessing the impact of the attacks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed responsibility for the strikes, calling them part of a retaliatory strike.
The situation is complicated by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which key raw materials such as bauxite and alumina are supplied. Without these supplies, the region’s aluminum smelters are effectively unable to maintain production. Some companies are already cutting capacity: Qatar’s Qatalum has reduced output by 40%, and a number of smelters in Bahrain have also announced partial shutdowns.
Analysts warn that if restrictions remain in place, prices could exceed the historical high of more than $4,000 per ton in 2022. Goldman Sachs estimates that as early as the second quarter of 2026, the global market may face a shortage of about 900 thousand tons of aluminum.
Aluminum remains a strategically important metal for aviation, automotive, energy and defense industries. Therefore, the current crisis risks affecting global supply chains and increasing pressure on industry worldwide.
