IA ar putea afecta veniturile Visa și Mastercard
According to analysts at investment firm Bernstein, the main threat is that artificial intelligence acts as rationally as possible. Unlike consumers, who care about bonuses, cashback or premium card status, algorithms focus solely on the cost and efficiency of the transaction. If there is a cheaper way to transfer money, AI will choose it, notes investing.com.
Today, Visa and Mastercard’s business model is largely based on an ad valorem system. The companies receive a percentage of each purchase made through their networks (typically a fee of about 1.5%-3.5% of the transaction amount). This model provides high margins and steady revenue growth. However, Bernstein warns that AI agents may prefer alternative payment methods, such as Pay-by-Bank or account-to-account (A2A) transfers, where fees are significantly lower.
If a significant portion of transactions are diverted to such channels, card networks risk losing some revenue. The e-commerce segment, where purchase automation is developing fastest, could be particularly sensitive.
The way out is to increase the number of transactions
At the same time, analysts do not speak of an inevitable crisis. The report notes that about a third of Visa and Mastercard’s revenue depends on the number of transactions, not on their monetary volume. This means that with the growth of the number of transactions, part of the income can be preserved. In addition, both companies are actively developing areas related to cybersecurity, data analytics and digital identification – so-called value-added services (VAS).
In public materials for investors, Visa and Mastercard have repeatedly emphasized that they rely on the expansion of technological infrastructure and protection of transactions. These solutions may also be in demand in the era of autonomous commerce, when the security of transactions between algorithms will become a key factor of trust.
There is also a more optimistic scenario. If the introduction of artificial intelligence leads to increased productivity and an accelerating global economy, the total number of transactions could increase significantly. In such a case, the share of card networks in each transaction may decrease, but the total market size will grow.
For now, the impact of AI on the payments industry remains a matter of debate. However, the traditional competitive advantages of Visa and Mastercard – network scale and brand recognition – may be less important in a world where decisions are made by an algorithm rather than a human.
