Over the past two months, financial investors have come up with a new trading strategy based on a simple rule – TACO. This is an acronym for the phrase “Trump Always Chickens Out”, meaning “Trump is always scared”. America’s president threatens to impose huge duties on imports from friendly and hostile countries or fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve, but then backs down because the uncompromising scourge of the market forces him to exercise discipline. Then Trump switches to duties again, and then backs off again.
When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office on May 6, 2025, few expected the swiftness with which he began to reshape the country’s foreign policy. But the tone has unequivocally changed. Germany’s long era of strategic uncertainty is coming to an end.
In the Middle Ages, usually only the court jester dared to tell the king an inconvenient truth. In the United States, under the ersatz court of President Donald Trump, who longs to be a monarch, the bond market has taken over that role.
For at least a while, the U.S. has abdicated its role as the leader of the global clean energy transition. U.S. President Donald Trump has not only reversed the clean energy goals set by his predecessor, but also refuses to recognize the serious health, economic and security risks posed by climate change even to Americans, let alone traditional U.S. allies and partners in the world. The Trump administration has chosen to focus on revitalizing the coal industry and increasing oil and gas exports in an attempt to achieve “energy dominance” over friends and foes alike.
To call the current global economic climate “uncertain” is a vast understatement of the confusion that has prevailed in recent months, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed “release day” duties in early April. He suspended them almost immediately as the capital markets (especially the US bond market) erupted into chaos. But no one, except perhaps a few administration insiders, knows whether Trump will resume the duties this summer (they are suspended for 90 days while affected countries try to negotiate new bilateral trade agreements with the US), or whether he will replace them with agreements with trading partners. Still, we can predict a number of consequences of Trump’s policies for the U.S. and global economy.
The tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump is in full swing, and investors around the world are wondering: what will be the next item in his plan to overthrow the global economic order? The attention of many is focused on the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Agreement”. This is a plan proposed by Stephen Miran, chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, to coordinate with America’s trading partners to weaken the dollar.
On May 2, the Federal Office for the Protection of the German Constitution ruled to classify the Alternative for Germany party (AdG for short) as far-right and extremist. In response, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke in defense of the AdG, condemning the decision as an act of “disguised tyranny.”
Donald Trump is rapidly turning the US into the largest tax offshore in world history. Just look at this: the Treasury Department has been instructed to withdraw from the information transparency regime that helps reveal the identity of the real owners of companies; the U.S. administration has withdrawn from the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation negotiations; it has stopped requiring compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; and is pursuing a massive deregulation of cryptocurrencies.
Every Easter, Christians remember how at the Last Supper, on the eve of Jesus’ crucifixion, it seemed that hope was lost. Most of Jesus’ closest friends were about to disown and abandon him. All that lay ahead was torture and a horrible death. But in this moment of despair, Jesus made himself a gift to all, he gave bread to his disciples and said: “This is my body, given for you.” This act of hope culminated on Easter morning when life triumphed over death, love over hate, and divine giving over human greed.
The US-led world order as we knew it is gone. As the tectonic plates of geopolitics move beneath us, Europe faces the challenge of preserving its institutions and preventing the world from returning to an era where the strongest man is right, amid the concentration of power by authoritarian leaders in Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
Progressive economists generally consider the huge economic stimulus package adopted by China in response to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (it was as large as 12.5 percent of GDP) to be a bold and masterful Keynesian decision: any government should try to replicate it. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund also sang China’s praises, and with them the developing countries that benefited from the commodity boom that soon began.
In late March, a French court banned Marine Le Pen from being elected to public office for five years on the grounds that her party, the far-right Rassemblement Nationale, had systematically embezzled more than 4 million euros in public funds. The money, intended for staffers of the European Parliament in Brussels, was used to cover the party’s expenses in France.
Over the past year and a half, insurers have begun to pull out of high-risk areas at an alarming rate. This is most evident in the state of California, where wildfires have become more frequent and intense.
Donald Trump’s second presidential term has coincided with a period of rapid structural and technological change defined by three trends. First, pandemic shocks, new wars, climate change and geopolitical tensions are still shaking the entire global economy. Second, broad “secular” trends continue to hamper economic growth and create new inflationary pressures. Third, scientific and technological breakthroughs are transforming many industries, from digital services and biotechnology to energy.
President Donald Trump is radically changing US foreign policy. Many now suspect that in the long term he wants to bring America closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The U.S., China and Russia are expected to share the world with each other, similar to the victors of World War II at the 1945 Yalta Conference. Trump has abandoned America’s 80-year commitment to protecting a world order based on rules and laws, so the world is returning to an era where “the strongest man is right.” But because Trump sees diplomacy as transactional, he is depriving America of a major force multiplier – its ability to form and manage alliances.
Europe should not be fooled. US President Donald Trump will inevitably sacrifice Ukraine on the Russian altar. The newest statements by top Trump administration officials leave no doubt about their deeply contemptuous attitude toward Europeans. As long as most EU countries are committed to a traditional liberal orientation, they will be seen as adversaries rather than allies.
Last week, heads of state, finance and energy ministers, investors, civil society groups and energy industry leaders gathered on the island of Barbados for the Sustainable Energy for All Forum (SEforAll for short). The chosen theme – Sustainable Energy for Equality, Security and Prosperity – reflects a reality that is often ignored: a clean energy transition is important not only to protect the planet, but also to increase economic resilience and energy security in the face of global uncertainty.
In January 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to stop the “weaponization” of federal law enforcement agencies, i.e. their use as weapons. Allegedly, the previous US administration used law enforcement and intelligence agencies to persecute political opponents. Critics called the decree a spectacle, but Trump’s supporters rejoiced at this, as they believe, bold fight against political overreach. Behind the legal spectacle, however, lies a much bigger story involving pipelines, sea lanes, global trade and financial flows.
From the pages of the New York Times, veteran Democratic Party strategist James Carville recently suggested to his colleagues a “bold political maneuver” in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s chosen tactic of shock and awe: “roll over and play dead.” His proposal, naturally, drew roars of condemnation and caustic rebukes from Democrats across the political spectrum. But one could argue (especially after that party’s helpless response to Trump’s message to Congress) that Democrats have already heeded his advice.
It is now clear that the administration of US President Donald Trump will betray Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Trump himself has either become a victim of disinformation or is voluntarily trying to deceive Americans about the causes and consequences of this war.
