(C) Project Syndicate
The tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump is in full swing, and investors around the world are wondering: what will be the next item in his plan to overthrow the global economic order? The attention of many is focused on the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Agreement”. This is a plan proposed by Stephen Miran, chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, to coordinate with America’s trading partners to weaken the dollar.
On May 2, the Federal Office for the Protection of the German Constitution ruled to classify the Alternative for Germany party (AdG for short) as far-right and extremist. In response, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke in defense of the AdG, condemning the decision as an act of “disguised tyranny.”
Donald Trump is rapidly turning the US into the largest tax offshore in world history. Just look at this: the Treasury Department has been instructed to withdraw from the information transparency regime that helps reveal the identity of the real owners of companies; the U.S. administration has withdrawn from the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation negotiations; it has stopped requiring compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; and is pursuing a massive deregulation of cryptocurrencies.
Every Easter, Christians remember how at the Last Supper, on the eve of Jesus’ crucifixion, it seemed that hope was lost. Most of Jesus’ closest friends were about to disown and abandon him. All that lay ahead was torture and a horrible death. But in this moment of despair, Jesus made himself a gift to all, he gave bread to his disciples and said: “This is my body, given for you.” This act of hope culminated on Easter morning when life triumphed over death, love over hate, and divine giving over human greed.
The US-led world order as we knew it is gone. As the tectonic plates of geopolitics move beneath us, Europe faces the challenge of preserving its institutions and preventing the world from returning to an era where the strongest man is right, amid the concentration of power by authoritarian leaders in Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
Progressive economists generally consider the huge economic stimulus package adopted by China in response to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (it was as large as 12.5 percent of GDP) to be a bold and masterful Keynesian decision: any government should try to replicate it. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund also sang China’s praises, and with them the developing countries that benefited from the commodity boom that soon began.
In late March, a French court banned Marine Le Pen from being elected to public office for five years on the grounds that her party, the far-right Rassemblement Nationale, had systematically embezzled more than 4 million euros in public funds. The money, intended for staffers of the European Parliament in Brussels, was used to cover the party’s expenses in France.
Over the past year and a half, insurers have begun to pull out of high-risk areas at an alarming rate. This is most evident in the state of California, where wildfires have become more frequent and intense.
Donald Trump’s second presidential term has coincided with a period of rapid structural and technological change defined by three trends. First, pandemic shocks, new wars, climate change and geopolitical tensions are still shaking the entire global economy. Second, broad “secular” trends continue to hamper economic growth and create new inflationary pressures. Third, scientific and technological breakthroughs are transforming many industries, from digital services and biotechnology to energy.
President Donald Trump is radically changing US foreign policy. Many now suspect that in the long term he wants to bring America closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The U.S., China and Russia are expected to share the world with each other, similar to the victors of World War II at the 1945 Yalta Conference. Trump has abandoned America’s 80-year commitment to protecting a world order based on rules and laws, so the world is returning to an era where “the strongest man is right.” But because Trump sees diplomacy as transactional, he is depriving America of a major force multiplier – its ability to form and manage alliances.
Europe should not be fooled. US President Donald Trump will inevitably sacrifice Ukraine on the Russian altar. The newest statements by top Trump administration officials leave no doubt about their deeply contemptuous attitude toward Europeans. As long as most EU countries are committed to a traditional liberal orientation, they will be seen as adversaries rather than allies.
Last week, heads of state, finance and energy ministers, investors, civil society groups and energy industry leaders gathered on the island of Barbados for the Sustainable Energy for All Forum (SEforAll for short). The chosen theme – Sustainable Energy for Equality, Security and Prosperity – reflects a reality that is often ignored: a clean energy transition is important not only to protect the planet, but also to increase economic resilience and energy security in the face of global uncertainty.
