At the beginning of August, Logos Press reported that the delegation from Moldova went to the very influential international conference of apple and pear business Prognosfruit-25 (Angers, France) with a very modest forecast. Apple production in the country in 2025 is expected to be only 277 thousand tons (-31% of last year’s figure – 404 thousand tons). As it turned out in the end, the pessimistic Moldovan forecast was combined with very cautious pan-European estimates for the apple harvest.
Thus, in his presentation, the general delegate of the European Fresh Produce Association Frechfel Europ, Philippe Binard, said that in the European Union the apple production in the current season compared to the previous season will slightly decrease – by 0.13%, from 10.46 to 10.45 million tons (but this is -7.5% of the average level for the last three years). Although in the apple producing countries, important for the European market, the harvest will either increase (Poland – by 3.5%, France – by 3.6%, Germany – by 14.7%), or decrease not too significantly (Italy – by 3.5%, Spain – by 8.3%). Moreover, the reduction in production in the latter two countries hints at a potential small deficit on the European market only in the premium apple segment.
The situation in Poland, the largest producer of apples in the EU, is of particular interest for the subjects of the European fruit business. After the peak period in 2021-23, when apple harvests in the country fluctuated between 3.9-4.4 million tons, last year the market leader dropped to a modest level of 3.2 million tons. Largely because of this, the EU entered the new season with almost zero commodity balances. And in the new season the normalization of the market situation largely depends on the restoration of apple production in Poland. But the projected harvest in 2025 at the level of 3.3 million tons is not yet the restoration of the “grandmaster status”.
The low forecast is also important from the point of view that Poland grows a lot of apples of such varieties as ‘Aidared’, ‘Fuji’, ‘Jonathan’ and ‘Red Delicious’, for which the Prognosfruit-25 forecast is negative: -8.8%, -9.4%, -14.1% and -19.2%, respectively. (It is worth noting that Moldova is also a major producer of these apple varieties, primarily ‘Aidared’).
Also very important for Moldovan apple producers is the fact that according to the forecast announced at Prognosfruit-25, this season’s apple harvest in Romania will decrease by 10%, from 491 to 442 thousand tons, as well as in Hungary – by 51%, to 160 thousand tons.
Outside the European Union serious consequences for the European market of apples will have a negative forecast of production of these fruits in Turkey (-38.7%, up to 2.7 million tons), Ukraine (-7.6%, up to 1 million tons) and Serbia (-26.7%, up to 238 thousand tons).
In other major world markets the situation with apple production in 2025-25 season is either more or less neutral or positive: in China a slight decrease (-5%), in the USA – a slight increase (+2.6%), in India – a significant growth (+33%).
The conclusion is that the European Union and especially the countries of Southern and Eastern Europe will become a relatively “weak link” in the chain of apple business this year. This may entail a very unusual situation of apple price growth for the third consecutive season in the EU and neighboring countries.
Based on such assumptions, operators of fruit business in Moldova at the beginning of the season chose rather optimistic tactics for the current marketing season. First of all, according to Moldova Fruct representatives, a significant number of growers and traders are working to store as many apples as possible – even early autumn varieties and even small caliber ones. In agrarian business circles, there is a belief that “in 2025-26, the ‘fresh market’ will eat all the apples a farmer can offer: both high-quality and so-called social apples”.
Taking into account this prevailing point of view, farmers are not in a hurry to load the apple concentrate factories with work from the very beginning of the fall, as in previous years. In September Moldovan canning companies manage to purchase and supply to the apple concentrate factories on average 30-40% less raw materials on a daily basis than in the same month of the last year.
On the other hand, processors themselves are not eager to force events. At the start of the season of apple processing of fall varieties, factories offer farmers a relatively low price for raw materials. According to the heads of enterprises belonging to the Association of Fruit and Vegetable Processors Speranța Con, processors pay an average of 3.5 lei/kg (about 0.16-0.17 euros/kg) for industrial apples of the new harvest.
Last year, the purchase price started at 4 lei/kg, and during the season, the “working” price (of most transactions) was in the unprecedentedly high range of 5-6 lei/kg. But it was the season of historically highest prices for apple concentrate practically all over the world.
At the beginning of the current season the situation on the apple concentrate market is already different. According to traders, because of the unusually high price, demand for reconstituted apple juice has fallen by an average of 20% worldwide. Its producers reacted to this by changing their assortment – they switched from 100% juices to nectars and juice-containing drinks. And the main thing is that “demand prices” for apple concentrate decreased. Accordingly, concentrate producers now consider paying the former high purchase price of the “overheated market” for industrial apple to be an unreasonable risk.
Representatives of canning factories consider the purchase prices for industrial apple that were established at the start of the season as “a return to normality”. They claim that “historically the price for this product above 0.15 euros/kg is a good price, higher than the long-term average price in Europe”.
Finally, Poland has not yet said its “second word”. Traditionally, apple production forecasts in this country change significantly as seasonal sales unfold. This year, closer to the middle of September, expert opinions are already slipping in the Polish information field that the apple harvest forecast should be adjusted upwards – at least to 3.6-3.8 million tons. If this happens, compared to last year’s estimate of apple production in the European Union, the apple balance of the bloc will be transformed from negative to positive. Further variants are possible: Polish apple of medium quality and below may go both to the scarce “fresh markets” of neighboring countries (Romania, for example) and to industrial processing.
It follows from all this that prices for apple – both industrial and “frosh” – in the European Union will not necessarily be high. That is, it is not a fact that export of Moldovan apple to the European market in the season 2025-26 will be high-margin. As a result, the “apple balance” in Moldova will not necessarily shift sharply from the processing sector to “frosh”.
