While Trump’s foreign policy tends to “follow the money,” the ideology of MAGA (Make America Great Again) also plays a role in this dystopian concept. According to Trump and his MAGA movement, Europe is the second most important battleground (after the US itself) to be conquered. And since this will require the collapse of the European Union, the long-standing transatlantic alliance has been replaced by enmity in a very short time.
It is worth dwelling on how radical this rupture is. The United States emerged from World War II as the major victor in both the European and Pacific theaters of war. They then defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War, which was not only a costly thermonuclear arms race between two superpowers, but also a struggle between two socioeconomic and normative systems. The Western combination of individual freedom, democracy, and market economy opposed the Soviet one-party police state with its sclerotic planned economy. The choice between the two alternatives was clear, and ultimately the American model prevailed. The Soviet Union collapsed, disintegrated and disappeared, leaving behind a Russian shard that, unable to reconcile itself with its post-imperial identity, became increasingly revanchist.
But with the election and then re-election of Trump, Americans made it clear that they no longer wanted to fulfill the role of the world’s policeman and bear the associated burden. Europe’s greatest failure in the decades since the end of the Cold War has thus been its failure to take greater responsibility for defending its borders – a necessary condition for maintaining sovereignty. From the Kremlin’s perspective, Europe’s vulnerability was an opportunity.
The new U.S. National Security Strategy, as well as Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine, which largely supports Russia’s maximalist positions, leaves little doubt about this administration’s goals. In typically insane fashion, Trump and his MAGA followers are declaring that the EU is an anti-American project that must be destroyed. Countries that have been friends and allies for eight decades are now portrayed as adversaries, while Vladimir Putin’s Russia is admirable.
By taking this stance, Trump has effectively destroyed the transatlantic West. In its place, he is creating an imperial America that reflects Russia’s imperial dreams as well as those increasingly pursued by China. In this new world order, only brute force matters, not the rule of law.
In seeking to realize this vision, Trump has made George Orwell’s prophecies even more impressive. In Orwell’s classic dystopian novel 1984, the world is similarly divided between three continental powers. Under Trump, the traditional values of American democracy have become obstacles to be removed and foreign authoritarian regimes have become role models.
Perhaps Trump hopes that by betraying Ukraine – and, by extension, Europe – and siding with Putin, he can get Russia on his side in the fight against China. But Putin is not going to play by his rules. He knows that without China on its side, Russia is too weak to maintain its shaky great power status. Moreover, both China and Russia are seeking to reshape the global hierarchy at America’s expense. Trump will fail; the only question is what the price of his failure will be.
It should be obvious that the destruction of the transatlantic West will weaken America itself. Trump and his MAGA supporters may convince themselves that America is self-sufficient, but they are wrong. The US needs Europe as much as Europe needs the US. The strategy Trump is pursuing boils down to self-sabotage.
Betraying longtime US allies will not make Putin more inclined to peace. On the contrary, it will make him even more bold. Intoxicated by his victory over the West in Ukraine, he will begin planning his advance westward. A cease-fire on his terms is nothing more than a tactical pause.
Already, the risk of expanding war is growing along the main axes of Eurasia: in the Far East between China and Japan, with respect to Taiwan, and on NATO’s eastern flank. Europe must prepare for the hard times ahead. This dangerous geopolitical crisis is exacerbated by Europe’s weak growth and inability to keep pace with China and America technologically. This gap needs to be closed. Sovereignty may be costly, but Europe’s freedom is priceless.
Joschka Fischer,
German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998 to 2005,
was leader of the German Green Party for nearly 20 years.
© Project Syndicate, 2025.
www.project-syndicate.org
