This was reported by Vadim Gumene, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center Expert Grup. He noted that in the context of bilateral trade relations, it is more appropriate to analyze the data on imports from Moldova provided by the United States, as they more accurately reflect the actual trade flows, including re-exports and indirect supplies. This approach is justified by the methodology used in international trade, in particular the differences between the origin criterion (used in import accounting) and the final destination criterion (used in export accounting).
Thus, during the reporting period, imports to the United States from Moldova decreased by about one third.
In particular, U.S. imports of agri-food products from Moldova decreased sharply by 42%, which directly reflects Moldova’s domestic production. However, this dynamics was almost entirely due to the reduction of supplies of fruit juices, a typical product for Moldova, the import of which decreased by about 80%, which in absolute terms is equivalent to a loss of about $18 million.
At the same time, shipments of alcoholic beverages – wines, spirits and cider – grew noticeably. On the contrary, imports of Moldovan industrial products to the USA remained relatively stable, even increasing slightly – by about 2%. This result is mainly due to Moldovan exports to the USA, carried out under the lohn regime, especially electrical equipment and textile products, which, although affected in some subcategories (e.g. electric cables or suitcases), benefited in general from the persistence of foreign orders from European companies operating in Moldova.
Finally, the expert noted the resilience of plastic products and adhesive tapes, which are not produced under the lohn regime and which managed to show significant results.
However, as Vadim Gumene noted, in order to highlight the impact of the application of the 10% horizontal duty imposed by the United States in April 2025, it is worth analyzing the monthly dynamics of imports. Thus, in the period from January to March (before the introduction of the duty), negative dynamics was recorded compared to the previous year, which is due to the general volatility of international markets. After the introduction of the tariff, in April and May, there is a sharper decline in imports, by about 28% y-o-y, equivalent to $8 million. This decline reflects the relatively rapid commercial response of distribution networks and logistics operators to the new tariff conditions.
The expert emphasized that disaggregated analysis by commodity groups allows to identify the most affected categories. Most of all, in absolute terms, the supply of juices (- 67%) and wines (- 37%) decreased, which is equivalent to – $5.6 million and – $2.7 million, respectively.
For some goods, such as oilseeds, the negative dynamics does not directly reflect the impact of the tariff, but is due to the irregular nature of shipments in previous years. Other categories, although showing a decline, contributed less to total exports, which reduces their impact on the overall impact.
On the other hand, some goods showed positive dynamics despite the introduction of the tariff. These are mainly goods produced under the lohn regime, such as transformers and some textiles.
It is also worth mentioning that a number of goods produced in Moldova, with higher added value, managed to maintain their competitiveness. This applies to plastic products (lids, labels), strong alcoholic beverages and, surprisingly, caviar, whose imports to the USA increased more than 4 times. And this is a sign of an emerging niche, which manages to penetrate the U.S. market despite tariff barriers.
As Vadim Gumene emphasized, despite the general reduction of Moldovan exports to the USA in the period after the imposition of duties, their impact is uneven. Goods of genuine Moldovan origin, previously competitive on the US market, have been most severely affected, while goods produced under the lohn regime have shown greater resilience.
This contrast emphasizes not only the direct impact of the US tariff policy, but also the structural vulnerability of Moldovan exports to foreign markets.
However, the above analysis refers to a phenomenon that has already occurred, namely the introduction of a common 10% tariff, both for Moldova and for the rest of the world, and its immediate impact.
However, as of August 1, the U.S. administration imposed an increased tariff of 25% on all goods produced in Moldova. This context requires a change of perspective: from noting the consequences of the trade shock already manifested to assessing future risks and forecasting possible trajectories of bilateral trade, taking into account the entire tariff architecture imposed by the US.
