The most accurate and easily applicable scale for assessing the turnover of the fruit business of RM in all its segments is the data of customs statistics on the volume, structure, geography and financial indicators of exports. (Information on domestic consumption of apple is speculative, while information on its processing is calculated on the basis of export volumes of apple concentrate and drinking juices). According to the forecast of Moldova Fruct Association, made two-three months ago, the export of Moldovan apple of last year’s harvest in the current marketing year (July 2024 – June 2025) will fall within the range of 105-120 thousand tons. Less than a month before the standard deadline for the end of the selling season, it becomes clear that the actual result will be close to the lower boundary of the expected range. This is 20-23% lower than the export of Moldovan apple in MY 2023-24 – 137 thousand tons.
According to Moldova Fruct’s calculations, by the beginning of May, about 93 thousand tons of apples of the 2024 crop were shipped from the country to foreign markets. The industry organization does not have data on exports at the end of last month. However, the statistics of previous years unambiguously indicates the traditional sharp, several times, decrease in the volume of export supplies of apples in May-June. In winter-spring of this year the average monthly export of apple was about 12-14 thousand tons. Accordingly, its external deliveries in May-June at the level of 5-6 thousand tons, obviously, can be considered a good result.
However, representatives of Moldova Fruct note that many large horticultural enterprises and trading companies exhausted the commodity resources of last year’s apple of export quality as early as in April. At the same time, the second half of spring in Moldova was abnormally cool, because of which the ripening and the start of sales of seasonal berries and stone fruits of local production in the country was delayed. For this reason the demand and prices for last year apples (the cheapest fruits in this period of MY) in Moldova increased. This is also the reason why summer exports of last year’s apple in 2025 will “sag” more than usual level.
Moreover, some traders claim that local apple of “store” quality (with controlled residual levels of pesticides) may not even be enough to fill chain retailers. Therefore, some retailers are considering the prospect of short-term and low-volume imports of high-quality apple (all other things being equal – still the cheapest fruit).
Previously, Moldova Fruct specialists assumed that the decrease in apple exports in the final marketing season will be roughly proportional to the reduction of the apple crop in 2024 compared to the corresponding figure for the previous year. However, last year’s apple crop was down 13.6%. And export volumes in MY 2024-25 will be below the level of the previous season by at least 20%.
In Moldova’s “apple balance” in MY 2023-24, the share of exports was about 27-28% (of apple production), in MY 2024-25 – only about 23-24%.
It can also be assumed that, taking into account the high cost of all fruits on the Moldovan market in MY 2024-25, the consumption of apple – after all, traditionally the cheapest fruit in Moldova – even against the background of low yield/quality and high prices of the domestic market in the country has increased. To what extent – it is difficult to judge. Earlier it was estimated by experts at around 50 thousand tons. In the outgoing season, it may have increased up to 60-65 thousand tons.
The volume of apple processing of the harvest-2024 was higher than forecasts and operational estimates – not 220-230, but rather 250 thousand tons, according to some heads of enterprises-members of the Association of Fruit and Vegetable Processors Speranta Con. Accordingly, the production of apple concentrate was close to 50 thousand tons. Moldovan factories still have significant stocks of this product.
Even taking into account all the above factors, the “apple balance” for MY 2024-25 does not add up. Probably, the marketable apple of the harvest-2024 was received not 447 thousand tons, but about 420 thousand tons – as some experts predicted last summer. Then it is quite logical that by January 1, 2025 warehouse stocks were not 130-150 thousand tons, but about 70-80 thousand tons. Accordingly, at the beginning of summer there were no more than 5 thousand tons of marketable apples left in the country. In any case, the market will eat them, but not at a high price.
Those who hoped to sell low-quality apple from refrigerators for industrial processing at a high price (above 5 lei/kg) in winter-spring 2025 have miscalculated. This would have been possible if the forecasts of international traders about low apple harvest and small export of apple concentrate from China had come true. According to moderately optimistic forecasts, supplies of Chinese concentrate were estimated at the level of 350 thousand tons, not more. In fact, China sent at least 520 thousand tons of apple concentrate to the markets of Europe, the USA and other buying countries. Naturally, such an unexpectedly booming commodity flow has put a strong pressure on the world price level for concentrate. Consequently, instead of active sales on highly liquid markets, European traders, including Moldovan ones, on the eve of the new season of apple processing faced the problem of significant commodity residues of expensive concentrate. And with no chances for increase in demand for apple concentrate in the short term.
A related problem is a difficult pricing policy at the start of the new season. At the very least, any (even the lowest) starting price for industrial apples of the 2025 crop may turn out to be excessive.
Reports that late spring frosts may result in the loss of a significant share of the potential 2025 apple crop in a number of Central and Eastern European countries, including Moldova, do not change the situation much. It may happen that even in the conditions of another low harvest, hopes for high purchase prices of fruit (and any kind) may be overestimated. This conclusion probably applies to apple (the cheap base of fruit segment of the consumer basket in all countries of Europe and the whole Northern Hemisphere) to a lesser extent. However, it would be reckless to ignore this possibility.
