In the current situation, it makes sense for all participants of the sugar market in Moldova (including, not least, the authorities) to carefully monitor and equalize the “balance of interests” of sugar beet farmers, sugar producers, sugar importers and, last but not least, industrial and household consumers. Otherwise, the whole sugar business will become a “one-gate game with the winner known in advance”.
To pay tribute
It is worth paying tribute to the courage of the operators of the sugar beet complex in Moldova. They will have to harvest about 5-5,5 thousand hectares (in 2025, about 11 thousand hectares of beet plantations were “under harvesting”). Is it scary? For beet growers – very much so. According to expert estimates, at the current purchase prices for sugar beet (800-1.1 thousand lei per ton), about 250 million lei worth of production is still waiting for its “star hour” in the fields.
In 2023 in Belgium and in 2024 in the USA, there were cases of sugar beet harvesting in February-March, with yield losses amounting to more than 60%. Some experts believe that in case of sugar beet harvesting in February 2026, the losses of Moldovan farmers may reach 150 million lei. How will sugar producers compensate for these losses, partly caused by technical failures of one of the plants and the slow pace of the harvesting campaign in its initial phase? The question is, of course, rhetorical. It is to be hoped that in the end everything will turn out all right.
Farmers and sugar companies intend to mobilize all resources to speed up the harvesting campaign and minimize the physical loss of beets. In particular, the management of Sudzucker Moldova is trying to rent additional beet harvesters wherever possible. Including in those regions of Ukraine, where sugar beet harvesting has already been completed. But there are few such regions nearby, and in the neighboring country 20-30% of agricultural areas under sugar beet have not been harvested yet. Besides, it is hard to imagine the difficulties (and what it will cost Moldovan sugar growers) to deliver large-sized agricultural machinery from the warring country. This is a question about the cost of sugar. Perhaps, it is not the main one in the situation when it is necessary to literally save the harvest. But nevertheless.
The main question in this context is how much sugar will actually be produced in Moldova? According to Pavel Filip, General Director of Sudzucker Moldova, by now the company has produced about 20 thousand tons of sugar from sugar beets of the crop-2025 (and the total available marketable resource, taking into account the sugar imported earlier – 39 thousand tons). The company expects to produce another 28 thousand tons of sugar from beets not yet harvested (from about 3 thousand hectares).
The second sugar producing company, Moldova Zahăr, according to expert estimates, currently has a marketable resource of 17 thousand tons of sugar, and another 15 thousand tons of the product can be produced from the beets still in the fields.
In total, sugar producers consider their autumn forecast of sugar production in the season-2025 at the level of 75-80 thousand tons as actual. There are also marketable residues of sugar imported this year – something in the region of 20-25 thousand tons.
In turn, other sugar market operators believe that these data are speculative, without official statistical confirmation. According to their estimates, the first of the mentioned companies has at the moment sugar stocks in the range of 27 thousand tons, the second – no more than 12 thousand tons.
The problem remains
The problem of not yet harvested beet and not yet produced sugar. In Moldova, rains continue, albeit small, but they are enough to delay the mass return of harvesters to beet fields. Forecasted frosts may turn out to be too weak and short-lived for the fields to “harden” to such a state to withstand heavy agricultural machinery. And there is also a promise of snow, which is also unlikely to stay for long, that is – it will become slush. Consequently, the forecast of a prolonged – until the end of winter – harvesting campaign for the 2025 beet crop is becoming more and more realistic. So is the risk of loss of beet quantity and quality (sugar yield).
Specialists of beet sugar production, who used to work at sugar factories in Moldova, believe that in case of bad weather and production scenario, no more than 45-55 thousand tons of sugar can be actually produced in the country at the end of the current season.
It is difficult to judge what are the real stocks of imported sugar by the end of the current year, according to operators of the sugar market of Moldova. Opinions on this matter differ greatly. If to be guided by the minimum estimates – it can be no more than 15 thousand tons. Conclusion: in order to have a realistic estimate for objective analysis of market dynamics in 2026, monitoring of sugar stocks is necessary, preferably by competent state agencies.
To complete the picture, it is worth considering that in 2026 Moldova will be able to import within duty-free and preferential quotas about 17 thousand tons of sugar. The most “sweet” quota – for duty-free import of 9 thousand tons of sugar from the European Union – will open in less than a month. Judging by the tone of their statements, the operators of the Moldovan sugar market will fiercely fight for it.
Why this (and other preferential) Euroquotes for the Moldovan sugar market operators are so “sweet”. At least because in many European countries sugar is already tens of percent cheaper than in Moldova. And in the new year, the price difference may even increase.
The problem is that Moldovan sugar producers, according to their own assurances, are already selling their not cheap sugar “on the verge or below the cost of production”. As noted above, the cost of locally produced sugar next year (based on the results of the beet processing season of the 2025 harvest) may increase. Consequently, according to the logic of Moldovan sugar growers, the less cheap imported sugar enters the Moldovan market (especially “in the wrong hands”) – the better. So the “battle for survival” for favorable import quotas is almost inevitable.
The assessment of the options of the outcome of this confrontation is very curious. It is obvious that the quotas will be chosen in full, and it will be a chance for guaranteed absence of sugar deficit on the Moldovan market in 2026 (if its capacity does not exceed the estimated range – 65-75 thousand tons). If the bulk of the quota sugar will be obtained by sugar producers, the prices for this product will be higher than the regional average. This is not bad for sugar beet farmers, as high sugar prices are a guarantee that sugar producers will pay them back and contract areas for beets of the next harvest.
If other sugar importers pinch a solid “piece of sugar” from the preferential quotas, sugar prices in Moldova will be close to the average regional prices. Since for this category of importers moderate sugar prices are the best PR and marketing tool for attracting new clients from among consumers.
Where to look for a way out?
Ideally, at the negotiating table. Once upon a time in Moldova quite effectively worked quite a legal mechanism of market regulation – at the meetings of “commodity line councils” under the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry. By the way, it was the beet sugar complex entities that actively used it.
Today, for many reasons, it is difficult to hope for constructive negotiations in a public and multilateral format between farmers, sugar producers, importers and consumers of sugar. But it is not impossible. Probably, it is possible to reduce the internal “degree of confrontation” if such a format of dialog is initiated by the Ministry of Economy. Or, perhaps, by the new Prime Minister?
