Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu considers the planned budget deficit "healthy"
Experts call the reason for the delay the past elections, but this “argument” is not stipulated in the legislation. Earlier, experts of the Ministry of Finance also pointed to the need to approve a medium-term budget forecast, the parameters of which are included in the draft annual budget. But today there is no talk about it, despite the fact that the document was prepared and submitted by the Ministry of Finance for consultations at the end of summer.
As the main objectives of the draft, the authors point to “maintaining moderate economic growth rates, ensuring macroeconomic stability and consolidation of the budget and taxes”. These objectives stem from the scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization.
In 2026, the ministry forecasts that the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.4% in real terms compared to 2025, and by 377.2 billion lei in nominal terms. The Finance Ministry estimates that in 2026, the national public budget (NPB) revenues will increase by 7.3 percent against the amount projected for 2025, amounting to 133, 457 billion lei. Expenditures will increase by 9.0% and will amount to 154.942 billion lei in nominal terms.
As a result, the national public budget deficit will exceed the current indicator and will reach the level of 5.7% of GDP, while in the current year it is expected to reach 5.04%. The state budget deficit is slightly lower than the NPB – 5.5% of GDP. But both of these figures are higher than projected for the current year.
Economist Volodymyr Golovatyuk draws attention to the growth of the budget deficit. He notes that next year it is planned to cover it almost completely (by 92%) at the expense of “debts”. “Moreover, internal and external, in equal measure,” he notes. – The government hopes to obtain internal borrowings through the net issue of state securities in the amount of 10 billion lei. This is an unprecedented amount, which I have doubts about. Taking into account the results of the last rounds of SS sale, the Ministry of Finance may manage to attract some of the planned funds within a few months, but this scenario is hardly feasible for a whole year”.
The same applies to external loans, through which the government hopes to equalize the 21, 485 billion lei difference between budget revenues and expenditures. “Life has taught us that plans can be at odds with realities, and therein lies the danger of setting such a high indicator,” the expert warns.
At the same time, Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu, while voting on the draft, said that the deficit is “healthy”, as it was formed mainly due to investments, not consumption expenses. “How to cover it, we will discuss with external partners, with the International Monetary Fund,” he said. – But we also have other sources, naturally.” Finance Minister Andrian Havrilice also noted that the deficit is indeed “not small, but it is important to emphasize that about half of it will go to investments.”
In 2026, the government expects an acceleration of economic growth due to improved external conditions, higher productivity, advancement of structural reforms and intensification of investments in the course of European integration. These processes will be accelerated as the EU-backed Growth Plan is implemented.
To achieve this goal, the government has envisioned over 50 reforms. At the same time, the cabinet has defined a portfolio of strategic investment projects as engines of economic growth. The largest allocations will go to the development of transport (31.6%) and energy (25.5%), reflecting the main priorities: modernization of infrastructure and transition to renewable energy. This is followed by the environmental sector (12.9%), regional development (8.9%), agriculture (6.0%) and support for the private sector (4.7%), as well as the social sector: education (4.2%) and health (3.0%).
The Ministry of Finance leaves the share of national public budget revenues in GDP at 35.4% or at the level of the current year. Although earlier it was noted the need to increase it over the next few years to ensure economic growth. Experts see this as a trick often used by the authors of such documents. When they underestimate the figure in order to leave the possibility of exceeding it during the year. Time will show whether this is true or the Ministry of Finance is just being cautious, and there are plenty of reasons for it.
In the meantime, the share of national public budget revenues in GDP is higher than that recorded in 2023 and 2024. Then it amounted to 33.7% and 34.1%, respectively. In terms of revenue structure, tax collections will reach 61.3%, insurance premiums 31.6%, other revenues 5.3%, and grants 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the share of expenditures in GDP is increasing. This year, the Ministry of Finance forecasts it will amount to 40.42%, and next year it will be 41.08%. At the same time, this figure is noticeably higher than the indicators of previous years. Namely: 39.2% – in 2023 and 37.9% – in 2024. Of these, economic expenditures will account for 10% of the total amount, the authorities will allocate 13.8% for health care, 2.9% for housing, 6% for public order and national security, 15.8% for education, etc. The largest amount will be social expenditures – 38.4%.
The expenses related to the projects financed from external sources are estimated at 5.707 billion lei, or 5.7% of the total budget expenditures. This is 70.3% more than the forecast for 2025, the authors of the document emphasize. In 2026, about 112 projects financed from external sources will be implemented. The most important of them concern the road sector – 776.6 million lei, water supply infrastructure in Central Moldova – 362.7 million lei, forest development – 330.1 million lei, the Roads of Moldova III, IV and V projects – 280 million lei, modernization of agricultural machinery and equipment – 261.5 million lei, disaster risk management and climate sustainability – 257.9 million lei, as well as the railroad – 257.8 million lei, among others.
Also on Thursday, the government adopted draft budgets of the state social insurance and compulsory health insurance. The documents will be submitted to the parliament and may be examined by lawmakers as early as next Thursday. The MPs will have to vote for them in at least two readings.
