Marin Gospodarenko
In the first half of the year, the dynamics of shipments abroad was negative. The increase in exports started from July 2025. In July-October, Moldovan exports increased monthly by 22-24% compared to last year.
Overall, during the four months, exports surpassed the figures of the same period of 2024 by $264.9 million (23%). At the same time, shipments of agricultural products in fresh and processed form increased by $213.9 million (by 50%). It means that more than 80% of the export growth in July-October this year is agricultural products.
This happened because in Q3 2025 gross agricultural output grew by 14.7%, including in crop production by 22.5%. Thus, the significant growth of exports in recent months and overcoming the recession occurred as a result of a good harvest.
“Exports have started to grow after three years of decline, but almost exclusively at the expense of agricultural raw materials,” said economist Veaceslav Ionita. – This confirms the structural vulnerability of the Moldovan economy, which is overly dependent on climate and agriculture abandoned by the authorities.”
The increase in production has led to a change in the balance between exports and re-exports. Shipments abroad of domestic goods in January-October 2025 amounted to $2370.4 million (78.1% of total exports), 5.7% more than in the same period of 2024.
And re-exports of foreign goods in January-October 2025 totaled $664.9 million (21.9% of total exports), down 5.9% from last year.
At the same time, the share of foreign goods re-exported after substantial processing amounted to 15% of total exports, while classic re-exports of foreign goods amounted to 6.9%. In June, the ratio was 16.2% to 7.2%.
Moldova mainly supplied abroad sunflower and corn seeds, rape, wheat and barley. Also among the main export goods are machinery and electrical equipment, fruits and vegetables, clothing and accessories, beverages, furniture, petroleum products, vegetable oils, ores and textiles.
Approximately 68% of Moldovan exports are to the EU countries, and the share of shipments in this direction increased by 4% in four months. Romania remains the main trade partner.
The share of exports to CIS countries is steadily falling, (11.3% less compared to the corresponding period of 2024), but this decline has somewhat slowed down – in June it was 23.9% less compared to last year.
However, the growing trade deficit remains an unsolved problem. Imports rose by 19.4% to $8.84 billion in 10 months. As a result, exports cover only 34.3% of imports – 5.5 percentage points less than a year earlier. As a result, the gap between imports and exports widened by $1.35 billion over the year to $5.8 billion – a new record.
“Our economy is increasingly anchored on consumption financed by imports rather than competitive manufacturing. The trade deficit is not just a number, but a wake-up call about how much we produce, what we produce and how competitive we are. If we do not change the model from consumption to production, the figures will continue to grow, and we will have to pay later, it is inevitable,” wrote economic analyst Marin Gospodarenko.
The expert explained in simple words the reason for the growing trade deficit. “We export seeds, grains, fruits and raw materials, while we import energy, machinery, equipment and consumer goods. In essence, we sell cheaply and buy expensively.”
To summarize the analysts’ statements, the calls for the development of agriculture as a source of export raw materials should be complemented by the need to invest not only in the processing of agricultural products, but also in other industries that create high added value. This is the only way Moldova will be able to cope with the growing deficit of the trade balance, which has long been taking on alarming proportions.
