In today’s release, the organization noted that the increase in the forecast is mainly due to better than previously estimated wheat harvests in Argentina, Canada and the European Union, bringing world wheat production to a new record high. Similarly, the forecast for world coarse grain production was revised upward slightly to another peak.
The adjustment was also based on updated data from China and the United States indicating increased corn acreage and higher-than-expected yields. While increased forecasts for barley production in Australia and Canada further supported expectations for a record performance.
For rice, FAO raised its forecast for world production in the 2025-2026 season by 2.9 million tons from December levels. This was largely driven by India, where official crop estimates for the 2024-2025 season have been raised and winter wheat (rabi) sowing is proceeding apace this season. Combined with smaller upward production adjustments in Nepal, Nigeria and several other countries, the revisions more than offset lower projections for the Philippines, due to lower yields caused by hurricanes, and for the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, where historical production figures were revised. As a result, world rice production for the 2025-2026 season is now projected at 561.6 million tons (in terms of shelled grain), a 2.0 percent increase over last year and a historic high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and India are still expected to provide the bulk of the increase, offsetting declines in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand and the United States.
Estimates for the 2026 planting season
In terms of crops for the 2026 harvest, winter wheat planting campaigns in the Northern Hemisphere countries concluded in January. In the European Union, preliminary data point to a likely slight increase in sown area in 2026 compared to the previous year. Against this background, as well as favorable weather conditions and expected near-average rainfall in February-April, it can be assumed that harvest volumes will remain above the five-year average, albeit below the exceptional performance of last year. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, sowing plans indicate that wheat acreage is likely to increase, supported by favorable sowing conditions and more attractive prices compared to other winter crops such as barley and oats. In the Russian Federation, wheat acreage is estimated to be down slightly from last year, with limited soil moisture and uncharacteristic temperature fluctuations affecting crop prospects. In India, where planted area is projected to reach record levels due to high domestic prices, overall views for the 2026 wheat crop remain positive, supported by continued favorable weather conditions in key production areas in the north of the country. In contrast, in the United States of America, low prices have led to a slight decline in winter wheat acreage, with crop conditions deteriorating over the past two months due to drier than normal weather conditions in some key production areas.
Harvest Capmania-2026 estimates
As for the Southern Hemisphere, harvesting of the 2026 coarse grains crop is expected to begin in the second quarter of the year in the main producing countries. In Argentina, despite a forecast drought in parts of the central producing regions in February, corn production is estimated to increase from the previous year due to a significant expansion of planted area following last year’s downturn and generally favorable crop conditions. In Brazil, sustained strong domestic and international demand may contribute to a slight increase in total area under crops, which could reach a new record high. However, concerns remain over a delay in the soybean planting campaign, which in turn could delay the second-crop corn (safrinha) planting campaign. In South Africa, amid generally favorable weather conditions and steady demand, area under maize in 2026 is estimated to increase by 3 percent year-on-year. The good harvest outlook is also supported by the outlook for rainfall, which is expected to be average to above average in the coming months.
Grainconsumption
Global cereal consumption in the 2025-2026 season is estimated by FAO to increase by 61.8 million tons (2.2 percent from the 2024-2025 season to reach 2,938 million tons. This is primarily due to a 3.0% increase in maize consumption, while wheat, sorghum and barley consumption is also expected to increase. Compared to December, the forecast for global cereal consumption was revised upward slightly.
Among coarse grains, maize consumption increased, mainly in Egypt, where there is strong growth in the poultry sector and livestock and aquaculture, and in the United States, where demand for corn for ethanol production has increased. This is partly offset by lower forecasts for barley and sorghum consumption. The forecast for world wheat consumption in the 2025-2026 season was raised slightly (by 0.8 million tons) from December, with a 1.5 percent year-on-year increase expected, reflecting the projected increase in wheat consumption for both food and feed purposes. For rice, with increased projections for non-food consumption in India, Pakistan, Vietnam and India, FAO expects world rice consumption to reach a record 554.9 million tons in the 2025-2026 season, up 2.7 percent from the previous year and 2.1 million tons above the December forecast.
Final stocks
FAO’s fresh forecast for world cereal stocks at the end of the 2026 season has been raised by 10.9 million tons, bringing the figure 67.6 million tons (7.8 percent) above the early season level. Stocks of all major cereals are expected to increase, especially in major producing and exporting countries, where record harvests are contributing to large stocks despite strong exports.
Corn stocks are expected to grow the most – by 28.7 million tons (10.0%) compared to the level of the previous season. Most of this growth will come from Brazil and the United States. Barley stocks are expected to increase by 4.6 million tons (16.8%), mainly due to significant accumulation in the European Union. World wheat stocks are projected to increase by 21.7 million tons (6.9%) by the end of the 2026 season.
At the same time, a significant increase in stocks is expected in major exporting countries (Argentina, Canada and European Union countries), as well as in India and China. At the same time, it is forecast that the ratio of world cereal stocks to consumption in the 2025-2026 season will increase to 31.8%, which will be the highest since 2001.
At the end of the 2025-2026 season, world rice stocks could increase by 3.8% from the level at the beginning of the season, reaching a new record high of 217.7 million tons. Stocks would thus be 900,000 tons higher than December projections, reflecting primarily an anticipated increase in India.
Grain trade
The forecast for world cereal trade in the 2025-2026 season (July-June), which was raised only slightly (to 501.0 million tons), exceeds the 2024-2025 season by 17.6 million tons (3.6 percent). World trade in coarse grains in the 2025-2026 season (July-June) is estimated at 235.6 million tons, 6.0 million tons (2.6 percent) above the 2024-2025 level, with Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and China expected to increase corn purchases in the 2025-2026 season.
World wheat trade for the 2025-2026 season (July-June) is projected at 204.8 million tons, up 12.0 million tons from the previous season but still 6.5 million tons below the record 2023-2024 season.
Major exporters such as Australia, Argentina, the European Union and the Russian Federation are expected to increase their market share again. While sales from Canada are likely to decline compared to the previous season. Demand from China remains subdued, but the outlook for the Islamic Republic of Iran, Uzbekistan and a number of other importing countries, which need to meet their domestic requirements on the back of below-average harvests, has been raised. World rice trade in 2026 (January-December) is projected at 60.6 million tons, 0.6 percent below the revised estimate for 2025. The slight year-on-year decline in trade is expected to be driven by a further decline in imports from Asian countries, with demand in other regions, particularly Africa, expected to be more resilient.
