The EU should not turn its back on the US; but it needs to realize that it can only count on itself. That means it needs hard (military) power. Trump’s term in office is limited, but Trumpism may not be going anywhere. Trump’s positions may change quickly and he has transactional approaches, but he may represent a long-term doctrine. Many of the decisions he made during his first term (from duties to confrontation with China) remained in place after his electoral defeat in 2020. And he was far from the first U.S. president to demand that other NATO members increase their contributions.
In addition, the Republican Party has now fallen under Trump’s complete control, ousting or forcing out anyone who does not support the president’s MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement. Trump has also subjugated the financial, legal and technological elite of the US and formed a wide range of potential successors. Having secured positions, he can focus on dynasty founding and historical legacy, including territorial expansion.
Although Trump has backed away from threats to use force to annex Greenland to the US, this crisis is not over. He dropped demands to establish US sovereignty over the island only after Europe showed that it was finally ready to respond in some other way than with a policy of appeasement. The European Parliament suspended work on a trade agreement with the US. Many EU leaders have called for an anti-enforcement mechanism (“trade bazooka”), and most have refused to join Trump’s bizarre pay-to-play Peace Council.
As long as the EU’s most serious problems were Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin, it could more or less tolerate the status quo. But the emergence of a new “Putin” in Washington has put the EU in a very different position.
Fortunately, the EU has all the necessary assets to become one of the three or four superpowers. Its total market is larger than that of any other country in the world, and in terms of alliances and soft power, the EU can compete with anyone. While Western Europe suffers from sluggish GDP growth, the economies of Central and Eastern Europe are growing rapidly. In the last 25 years, no U.S. state’s economy has grown as fast as Poland’s.
Yes, the EU lags behind the US and China in terms of innovation and access to raw materials, but these countries have their own serious problems. China cannot cope with unfavorable demographics and very low consumption. And U.S. strength is being eroded from within by the Trump administration’s war on research, higher education, immigration, the rule of law and international organizations. Russia, on the other hand, essentially has almost nothing but a completely war-oriented economy.
If Greenland, Canada, or even Venezuela had to choose between becoming part of the U.S. or the EU, they would certainly choose the second option. There are good reasons why Ukraine and a dozen other countries dream of joining the EU. To take inspiration from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement on the night of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022: there are half a billion people here; there is a huge industrial base here; there is a sixth of the world’s GDP here; and there are allies here (on all continents).
In other words, Europe has enormous latent power and is beginning to unleash this potential more actively. In the short to medium term, it is obliged to fight for time and solve the “Ukrainian question”, just as the West solved the “Eastern European question” in the 90s. Trump has already shifted the problem to Europe by refusing to fund the Ukrainian army and state. Five years ago, it would have seemed absurdly optimistic to predict that the EU would issue joint bonds, buy weapons and make key decisions without unanimous approval. No one could have predicted that Sweden and Finland would abandon neutrality and join NATO, significantly strengthening the European part of the alliance.
However, all this has happened, and more. European defense companies are now growing much faster than American ones. In Europe, the fastest growing company is German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. While America is canceling mutually beneficial trade agreements, the EU is making new ones, including a recent agreement with India. If Ukraine’s million-strong army (battle-hardened and innovative like no other army in the world) stays on Europe’s side and stays out of Russia’s hands, then Europe will have everything it needs to become a military superpower in the age of combat drones.
The EU has proven time and time again that it is capable of reforming itself despite resistance from enemies inside and outside its borders. And to paraphrase Zelensky again, Europe does not need free handouts, Europe needs weapons.
Slawomir Sierakowski,
founder of the Krytyka Polityczna movement, Senior Fellow at the Mercator Foundation.
© Project Syndicate, 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org
