photo (c) epravda.com.ua
The new markings on the scoreboards of bank exchangers are perceived especially cautiously against the background of the fact that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the recent negotiations with Ukraine insisted on a faster depreciation of the national currency, the Economic Pravda newspaper has said.
The publication notes that throughout 2025, the U.S. currency fluctuated around UAH 41.5-42. In some months of last year, the hryvnya even strengthened against the dollar, and the exchange rate at the beginning and end of the year was almost identical – around UAH 42.
However, this cannot be said about the euro: its exchange rate rose from 43.68 to 49.55 UAH or by 13.4% over the year. First of all, such a jump occurred due to the depreciation of the dollar against other world currencies.
Against this background, the first days of 2026 became a real “cold shower” for the hryvnia. For incomplete two weeks of the year, the exchange rate rose by UAH 1.2, to UAH 43.25 per one dollar, and for the first time in history the American currency in the official rates of the National Bank crossed the mark of UAH 43. The euro also rose in price and now for the first time costs more than UAH 50.
Analysts believe that several key factors influenced the sharp fall of the national currency in Ukraine: traditional seasonal fluctuations, sharply increased budget expenditures by the end of the year, as well as the policy of the National Bank. The latter factor is probably related to the IMF conditions, which forced the National Bank to switch to a “managed” depreciation of the hryvnya in order to generate more revenues for the budget.
Be that as it may, devaluation of the hryvnia in a neighboring country may lead to a jump in inflation. And since Ukraine is on the list of Moldova’s largest trade partners, including imports of goods, it is quite possible that together with Ukrainian products we will import partial inflation.
