About this writes Latifundist with reference to Fastmarkets data. The publication notes that current logistical constraints are holding back shipment volumes and thus supporting grain prices.
In July-December 2025, Ukraine exported only 5.9 million tons of corn. This is just over half of the figure for the same period last season, when 9.8 million tons were shipped. The current pace is slower since the 2017/18 marketing year, when exports totaled 5.5 million tons by the end of December.
One of the main reasons is the systemic impact of Russia’s massive attacks on railroad infrastructure. According to public information and traders’ data, Ukrainian railroads received more than 800 strikes during the calendar year. Delivery time to ports increased from two to three days to 10-20, and logistics costs increased due to the forced use of generators at elevators and terminals.
In the first six months of the season, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn were Turkey (1.5 million tons), Italy (1.3 million tons), the Netherlands (430.8 thousand tons) and Spain (397.5 thousand tons). Egypt, which used to be one of the key markets, reduced purchases to 248.9 thousand tons.
Demand in Europe is constrained by a number of factors, including concerns over African swine fever outbreaks among wild boars and high protein meal stocks amid uncertainty over the introduction of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
Turkey reduced imports after robust purchases in July-September due to its own harvest and competitive Russian grain offers. Egypt focused on Brazilian-origin corn in July-September, importing 2.7 million tons, above the five-year average.
“On the supply side, the situation looks tight. Ukraine can harvest 30-32 million tons of corn, and by December 11, 25.4 million tons had been harvested, representing 83% of the area – almost last year’s volume. Part of the harvest is likely to remain in the field for the winter. Export potential is estimated at about 25 million tons. Due to lower export rates in the traditional peak months (November-February), significant volumes of grain may reach the market in March-June, by the beginning of the new season, which may lead to price pressure,” the report says.
Some market participants expect that in spring Ukrainian sellers will be more active in seeking buyers, and this may lead to lower prices in March or April.
