At the end of 2025 and in the first days of the coming year, global Brent crude oil prices froze around the $61 per barrel mark, despite some factors that put downward and upward pressure on prices. A slight strengthening of the U.S. dollar had an impact on the decline in demand, which reinforced the downward trend of crude oil prices, which has long been supported by an oversupply of crude on the world markets.
Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, the markets continue to take into account the plans of the member countries to reduce production to support price stability. However, the high level of production by non-OPEC producers, as well as weaker demand growth than expected, largely offset the efforts of the organization’s countries to contain the fall in quotations on the world exchanges.
These downward trends are to some extent counterbalanced by geopolitical events that occasionally push oil prices upwards. These include attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, which increase the risk of supply disruptions. This is especially true of strikes on pipelines and refineries.
Ongoing tensions between Israel and its neighbors, as well as between the U.S. and Iran, heighten concerns about risks associated with production and transportation routes in the Middle East. The US-Venezuela conflict is also in the mix, creating uncertainty about the sustainability of Venezuela’s oil exports.
Based on all these factors, it can be stated that global oversupply, high production and rising inventories will continue to put downward pressure on oil prices in 2026. Despite the remaining geopolitical risks, they will not be able to have a significant impact on price growth, according to analysts of the global oil market.
