The paper’s editors describe the overall conclusion as follows: the world in 2026 will become even less predictable.
“However, a number of overvalued areas, from technology to finance, will face a cooling and revision of previous assessments,” the publication says.
Politics and geopolitics
Donald Trump, the FT estimates, will back off the toughest tariff threats by the end of the year due to market pressures, inflation and resistance from trading partners; Ukraine’s abandonment of Donbass is only possible in the event of a military collapse, the FT authors believe; Democrats are likely to regain control of the US House of Representatives, allowing them to block Trump’s agenda and launch investigations; Saudi Arabia is unlikely to normalize relations with Israel; Germany will maintain a political “cordon sanitaire” around the far-right AfD.
Economics and Finance
Most central banks will continue to cut rates. Japan will remain an exception; the Chinese yuan will not strengthen significantly despite a record trade surplus; defaults are expected to rise in the private credit sector, but without a systemic financial crisis; the price of gold may exceed five thousand dollars per ounce; Africa’s growth rate may slightly outpace Asia for the first time.
Technology
Overheating in artificial intelligence will begin to subside: large tech companies will remain resilient, while venture capital and smaller players will suffer losses; a commercially viable quantum computer is unlikely to emerge in 2026; humanoid robots will enter the market, but will remain an expensive and niche product; a fully AI-created song will fail to top major global charts.
Business and markets
Tesla, FT predicts, will fail to regain lost ground in the US, Europe and China; Ilon Musk will focus on AI and robotaxis rather than classic car manufacturing.
“Last year’s forecasts were record inaccurate,” the editorial acknowledged.
In 2025, seven out of 20 predictions did not come true. This is the worst result in the history of the project.
“This clearly shows how difficult it is to predict the development of the world today,” explained the relative failure of the authors of the annual forecast from the Financial Times.
