From the beginning of 2025 to November 30, the country’s total debt increased by 7.7 billion lei, including domestic debt by 5.6 billion lei and external debt by 2.1 billion lei.
According to economist Vladimir Golovatiuc, the picture was quite different last year.
Since the beginning of 2024, the total debt has increased by 7.6 billion lei, with the domestic one by 3.2 billion lei and the external one by 4.4 billion lei.
Golovatiuc also notes that before the November changes in the state budget, the main factor behind the increase in the total state debt this year were external loans. After these changes – internal ones.
This is due to the fact that the last tranche from the IMF – about 2.9 billion lei equivalent ($170 million) – did not arrive. Only $13.6 million came from the Fund in January, which is only 2.2% of the total loans coming from abroad this year. Whereas loans from the IMF totaled $321 million, or nearly a third of all foreign loans last year, in 2024.
Actually, considering the role played by the IMF and the place it occupies in the world financial system, the refusal to grant the next and final tranche, as well as the rather harsh statement of the IMF mission staff following the official visit to Moldova, is quite serious.
In fact, it is the IMF’s assessment of the reforms carried out in the country in many fields, and it cannot but affect Moldova’s international image. At least, in the field of investment attractiveness.
Besides, the economist draws attention to the fact that despite the insignificant growth of the state debt in November compared to the previous month (only 480 million lei), it increased by 17.5 billion lei during the year, i.e. by November 2024.
This is the largest increase between 2022 and 2025. In November 2024, compared to November 2023, the increase was 10.1 billion; in November 2023, 10.8 billion was gained for the year, and in November 2022, 13 billion.
Over the past year, government debt has grown by 16% and 66% over 4 years. Meanwhile, the nominal growth of the economy was 10% and 48% respectively. Debts are growing much faster than the economy, the expert notes.
Moreover, debts are growing faster than the state budget revenues, at the expense of which they are returned. The latter have grown by 14% over the year and by 60% over 4 years.
The state debt limit for 2025, set by the latest amendments to the state budget, is 129,149 billion lei. As of 30.11.25, it amounted to 129,131 billion lei, which means that this limit has been exceeded so far.
However, in December, the Ministry of Finance held three auctions for the sale of government securities worth 6.6 billion lei and made refunds on previously sold securities worth 4.4 billion lei. This is another 2 billion lei plus to the total amount of state debt.
In this regard, the economist does not rule out that the limit may be exceeded at the end of the year.
