Last month, parity was still quite far away, even in terms of physical trade turnover. Thus, in particular, in November Moldova exported about 117 thousand tons of sunflower alone, while all grains – a little less than 95 thousand tons. However, in December, there was a decline in oilseed sales, both external and internal, while trade in cereals is gradually gaining momentum.
About 64% of November grain exports were external wheat shipments (more than 60 thousand tons), 20% were corn (19 thousand tons), and barley accounted for 15% (14 thousand tons). “Export basket” also included niche products – grain sorghum, buckwheat, rye and even rice. But in total the volume of their external supplies in physical terms was small – about 1 thousand tons.
The analysis of agro-marketing expert Iurie Rizhi shows curious peculiarities of Moldovan grain export commodity flow in November. Thus, in the wheat segment there is a rather high concentration: a dozen companies provide three quarters of the commodity flow (the share of the leader, Rusagro-Prim, is about 30%), the bulk of external supplies falls on only five countries (the undisputed leader is Italy, the share is 62%).
At the same time, in terms of the price for exported Moldovan wheat, the most premium market is not its largest importer, but number two in the rating – Turkey, which paid 6% more for this product than all other buyers. The third place in terms of Moldovan wheat supplies is occupied by Romania, which purchased this commodity at 6% below the average invoice price.
Corn exports are more diversified. The main direction of supplies is Turkey and the Balkans. Moreover, the Turkish market was the leader in terms of volumes – one third of all corn supplies, while the Romanian market was the leader in terms of its purchase prices (3% higher than the average export price). Of particular interest is the fact that in November the average price for export corn in Moldova – 3787 lei/t – was 3.3% higher than for wheat. This is an infrequent market situation provoked, presumably, by regional specifics – problems with harvesting and quality of this crop.
Barley is a special crop in the “big triad” of grain exports from Moldova. This segment is dominated by one exporter (Orom-Imexpo, more than 76% of shipments in physical terms) and one market (Lebanon, also about 76%). At the same time, an extremely rare situation: in the “big triad” barley turned out to be the most expensive type of product in November – 4,256 lei/t on average.
Prospects for the market dynamics of grain and oilseed commodity groups in December are not fully clear. Probably, the balance will continue to equalize: sunflower supplies – to decrease, grain supplies – to increase. However, logistical factors may have a significant impact: growing tension in the sphere of cargo shipping in the Black Sea region, increased tariffs for railway transportation in Moldova. It is worth noting that in the export logistics of sunflower the preferred transport is road, while grain – railroad. Accordingly, it is not certain that the December grain export volume will exceed the November figures, as it was in the previous three years.
