The director of the real estate agency Euroimobil, Radu Shitov, points out that both in Moldova and Romania the prices for housing have increased, while the number of purchase and sale transactions has noticeably decreased. One of the reasons for this is the decrease in building authorizations.
Housing prices in Romania’s major cities have increased by almost 100% over the past six years, and the administrative deadlock in Bucharest is increasing pressure on the market, Ziarul Financiar writes. The number of building permits in Romania’s capital has fallen by 45% over the past three years, severely limiting the supply of new housing. Despite the continued strong demand, Colliers consultants predict that in 2026-2027, there may be a new round of accelerated price growth as financing conditions soften.
Experts warn that the blocking of projects is no longer a temporary phenomenon, but a structural risk for the market. We are talking about the preconditions for accelerated price growth as soon as interest rates start to fall, real wages return to positive values, and demand grows much faster than supply.
A similar trend is observed in Chisinau. The number of issued housing construction permits in 2023 decreased by 15.6%, in 2024 – by 9.9% against the previous year. And average apartment prices in the capital, according to Acces Imobil experts, increased by 89.3% from 2015 to 2023. And only for the first quarter of 2025 they rose in price by 12%, reaching a historic high of 1720 euros per square meter by the end of March. This has caused a significant decline in the number of home sales transactions. In the first nine months of 2025 in Chisinau there were almost half as many transactions as in the same period of 2024 (5,335 and 11,494 transactions respectively).
A real shock for the Romanian real estate market was the increase of VAT for new houses from 9% to 21% from August 1, 2025.
This change caused a strong reaction from both buyers and developers. In anticipation of the introduction of the new tax rule, the “Association of Real Estate Developers in Romania – URBANIS” (abbreviated as ADIRU) expressed its views on this measure to the government and the Ministry of Finance.
“Currently, the real estate market in Romania is facing a number of development and growth difficulties, among which: a long period of political and fiscal uncertainty, which has already affected the economic environment and the desire to purchase new homes. As well as other specific difficulties related to the increase in construction prices, which led in 2024 and in the first half of 2025 to an increase in the purchase prices of new housing,” the statement said.
It also emphasizes that new home prices rose nationally by 13% in 2024 and 15% in the first half of 2025. On the other hand, the number of transactions decreased by 14% in 2024 compared to 2023, and by 18% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous period. Comparing these figures, there is a direct and clear link between rising prices and the decline in the number of transactions at the national level, which in recent months has been driven by political and budgetary uncertainty.
An increase in VAT from 9% to 21% will lead to a direct and automatic 12% increase in the price of new homes, leading to historic new house price rises of 30% or more in 2025, ADIRU warned.
Experts say that many Romanians have rushed to take advantage of the reduced VAT rate of 9%, valid until July 31, and demand has increased significantly for small studios and one-bedroom apartments. They say that today the real estate market is going through a period of adaptation. And they predict a further increase in interest in larger apartments and the secondary market, while small-sized houses will have to adapt to the new tax conditions.
“In the Republic of Moldova, a similar impact on the residential real estate market had a restriction on cash payments for the purchase of real estate in the amount equivalent to 100 average monthly wages (about 80 thousand euros), introduced on April 1, – said Radu Shitov. – Today it is difficult to buy anything in Chisinau for such money. The introduction of such a measure to combat money laundering is understandable, but it should be linked to the realities of the market and increase the amount of cash for payment at least twice”.
Following the rise in prices, this has become a deterrent to buying real estate.
Another factor characteristic of the markets in both countries is the widening gap between house prices and wages.
According to a study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, a resident of Bucharest needs 2.7 salaries to buy a square meter of housing – more than a German from Berlin. And in Cluj for the same square meter you need to work for 3 months, almost as much as in Madrid. And that’s assuming you don’t buy anything else. Romanians spend 31% of their salary on food and clothing, while Germans spend only 15%, according to the Romanian press.
In Moldova, the affordability of housing has also decreased in recent years. According to an analysis by Acces Imobil, while in the period 2019-2023 the average affordability indicator, calculated on the basis of the ratio of average salary and price per square meter, was about 9 years, it has now increased to about 10.5 years.
For comparison, in 2020, to buy 1 square meter of housing required 1.7 average wages in the economy, and to buy a 60 m2 apartment – about 8.7 years. Today, it takes 2.1 average wages and 10.3 years to earn the full amount to buy 1 square meter of the same apartment.
The difference becomes even more noticeable if we compare the overall prices. In 2020, the average apartment cost about 45 thousand euros, while today the cost of the same housing exceeds 100 thousand euros. This doubling of prices, without a proportional increase in income, explains the current market blockage and the growing difficulty of acquiring real estate for a family.
Experts also point to such a factor as a significant number of speculative transactions in the real estate markets of both countries. That is, when housing is acquired not for their own residence, but for resale. According to Radu Shitov, in Romania, more than 30% of transactions – it is an investment purchase. This also drives up apartment prices.
According to the specialists of Proimobil agency, small-sized apartments are the most profitable as investments both for resale and for rent. Investors often buy from 3 to 5 apartments. The record was the purchase of 40 apartments by a client from Israel.
In Moldova, the rapid growth of prices is largely due to speculative demand and investment in housing for rent or resale, rather than real need. Specific data on the share of speculative transactions is not given. But the overall decrease in the number of transactions by 69% compared to 2024 may indicate a decrease in speculative activity caused by the general downturn in the market.
