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Moldova’s chances in Ukraine’s recovery process

The United Nations estimates the total cost of Ukraine's post-war recovery and reconstruction at $524 billion over the next decade. These figures are up to date as of the end of 2024, with the cost estimates increasing every year. New figures are expected by the end of this year.
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Moldova’s chances in Ukraine’s recovery process

Laurenciu Plesca, Iurie Calestru, Anatoliy Tkach

According to experts, the USA will be one of the key players in Ukraine’s recovery. And the EU package for Moldova in the amount of 1.9 billion euros is not only about European integration, but also about Moldova becoming part of the chain of Ukraine’s reconstruction. And they note that the most important, even the most important thing now is the very fact that we have started talking about the process of reconstruction of Ukraine: “Speaking about it, we mean the end of the conflict, which is already a positive signal for the region.

In this context, Moldova stands at the crossroads of important challenges. According to many politicians and experts, the country can become a logistical link in the reconstruction of destroyed Ukrainian cities. Moldovan President Maia Sandu in July this year, at the Conference on the Reconstruction of Ukraine, outlined the directions we can take on this path.

“Our country is a natural corridor to the south of our neighboring country: from Odessa and Mykolaiv to Kherson, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhya. This means that construction materials and equipment can be brought, stored and transported through Moldova, helping to restore the infrastructure destroyed by the war,” the head of state said.

Logos Press asked experts in regional security, economics and politics whether Moldova has a chance to become a logistical base in the process of reconstruction of the neighboring country.

Three ways

Laurenciu Plesca, affiliated expert of the Platform for Security and Defense Initiatives (PISA):

“Rebuilding Ukraine will take many years and require enormous financial resources. Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has completely changed the logistical map of the region. In this situation, I believe that Moldova has a chance to play an important role, but this role is neither guaranteed nor automatic. This chance is directly fueled by the EU support and the economic dynamics that emerged after 2022. We are talking about the EU’s €1.9 billion Growth Plan for Moldova. This package is not only about European integration, it creates exactly the infrastructure and capacities needed for Moldova to become part of Ukraine’s recovery chain. Roads, energy bridges, modernization of the Giurgiulesti port – all these are investments that increase Moldova’s regional importance”.

In his opinion, there are three areas in which Moldova can become really important.

The first is as a logistics hub, given its proximity to the Odessa region and access to the Danube through Giurgiulesti. But to use it, the state needs to modernize its road, rail and port infrastructure. Without large-scale investment, Moldova risks remaining just a peripheral transit point.

The second is an economic and service hub. Chisinau could host international companies involved in Ukraine’s reconstruction, especially in IT, financial services, consulting, project management and trade. Political stability, the quality of regulation and reforms, and a predictable investment environment are crucial here.

Third, Moldova can become a “backbone” for international organizations involved in reconstruction, whether as a regional headquarters or an operational base. But for this, the country needs functional, sustainable institutions capable of managing business partnerships.

Laurenziu Plesca believes that one of the key players in Ukraine’s reconstruction will be the United States. And if Moldova wants to enter the ecosystem of American companies, funds and projects, it needs to work on a stable and predictable investment environment. This means: justice reform, eradication of corruption, smart reduction of regulatory pressure and a competitive business climate.

One Chamber

The expert community is now actively discussing the creation of the Trilateral Chamber of Commerce and Industry Romania-Ukraine-Moldova (TTPRUM). It is seen as a tool to coordinate investments in the reconstruction of Ukraine and to strengthen cross-border cooperation. And in this sense, according to the initiators, Chisinau can become “a meeting place for politicians, experts and investors” from the entire European continent and beyond.

Iurie Calestru, program director of the Institute for Development and Project Expertise (IDEP Moldova), is sure that our country not only can, but is simply called to become an important logistic and economic hub in the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Iurie Calestru: “The key factor strengthening the logistic role of Moldova is the development of high-capacity road and railroad infrastructure. The Iasi-Chisinau-Odessa highway, a continuation of the Romanian highway A8 to the east, could become such a promising project. This route is of strategic importance for connecting Moldova and southern Ukraine with the European transportation network. Thanks to our efforts, the European Commission and the European Investment Bank have allocated 10 million euros for the preparation of a feasibility study of the project, which confirms its strategic importance”.

He notes that the implementation of the Iasi-Kishinev-Odessa highway and the modernization of the north-south railroad will allow organizing large-scale cargo flows to Ukraine. The Giurgiulesti port on the Danube can serve as an alternative route for material transportation. “These infrastructure investments will turn Moldova into a regional logistics hub, ensuring efficient transit of humanitarian aid, construction materials and equipment, reducing the time and cost of transportation,” Iurie Calestru is confident.

The expert believes that Moldova is obliged to use these advantages to attract investments, efficiently channel or redirect material and financial resources to the affected areas of the neighboring country.

Special advantage

All interlocutors in one way or another emphasize the important role of the Giurgiulesti port in the logistics and reconstruction of Ukraine. Anatoliy Tkaci, Doctor of Political Sciences, internationalist, expressed concern that Moldova risks losing this strategic advantage as well.

To be fair, it should be noted that the deal on the sale of the port has not been finalized yet. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization assures that it will be done in the interests of Moldova. The EBRD, which fully owns the port through Danube Logistics, probably expects the same result.

Anatoliy Tkaci in his conversation with Logos Press correspondent emphasized one very important point, even the main one in all this discussion about the role of Moldova in the reconstruction of Ukraine. It is the very fact that we have started talking about the process of its reconstruction:

Anatoliy Tkaci: “Moldovan people demonstrated their best qualities by accepting their neighbors in a difficult period for them – in the spring of 2022 and helping them in every possible way. Therefore, when we speak about the process of Ukraine’s recovery, we mean the end of the conflict, which is already a positive signal for the region. And there is no doubt that the Republic of Moldova could integrate into this process, playing an important role as Ukraine’s closest neighbor”.

And also the citizens of our countries understand each other very well. And this is another important, special advantage that can facilitate interaction, communication and coordination at all levels. Will Moldova be able to prove that it is not just a “small country with a big heart”, but a real partner, which is able to prove its reliability?


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