Statistical calculations for 2024 show that Moldova has 1.26 children per woman. This is well below the reproductive threshold of 2.1 births per woman and is almost the lowest among the countries adhering to Western values. Italy is at the same level and Spain is slightly higher (1.30). Romania ranks 173rd with a rate of 1.63.
Among European states, Israel is the only country where the reproduction rate is above the threshold – 2.92. In second place is Iceland with a coefficient of 1.94, and in third place is France with a coefficient of 1.90.
In Russia, the fertility rate is 1.52, in Ukraine – 1.22 (224th place in the ranking).
In the world ranking are Niger – 6.64, Angola – 5.57 and the Democratic Republic of Congo – 5.49. The list is closed by Singapore – 1.17, South Korea – 1.12 and Taiwan – 1.11.
The CIA specifically emphasizes that the data are given without taking migration into account. But even without it, low birth rates entail multiple risks for states.
First, the share of the elderly under demographic strain rises sharply as the population shrinks, putting pressure on the pension and health care systems. To support a growing elderly population, the tax burden on workers will have to rise.
The second risk is a slowdown in labor productivity growth. According to a 2023 study published in the American Economic Journal, a 10 percent increase in the population over age 60 leads to a 5.5 percent drop in GDP per capita. One-third of this decline is due to slower employment growth, and the remaining two-thirds is due to slower productivity growth.
Some countries are encouraging immigration to offset the effects of lower fertility, although this carries the risk of social unrest.
In Moldova, this topic is also being raised, but not very actively so far because of the low wages in the country. Therefore, we can attract only citizens from the poorest countries of the world to replace Moldovans who left or were not born. And this, indeed, is fraught not only with social upheavals, but also with exponential growth of crime and some other complications.
