These disappointing predictions were reached by Dr. Ensar Küçücücaltan, CEO of Eighth Continent, which implements educational and sustainable agriculture projects for NGOs in Africa and Turkey. His commentary is published by Turkey’s Anadolu Agency.
The publication notes that according to the latest data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the decline in coffee production and rising prices could lead to the enjoyment of coffee becoming more expensive and even losing quality in the future. In early 2025, FAO reported that global coffee prices last year reached a recent high. Production declined and prices rose by an average of 38.8% compared to the previous year. The main reasons were severe weather conditions in the leading producing countries. In particular, Vietnam restricted exports, in Indonesia excessive rains reduced the crop by 16%, and in Brazil unfavorable weather damaged coffee plantations.
Studies show that in Ethiopia, which produces 5% of the world’s coffee, the area suitable for growing Arabica is rapidly shrinking due to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall.
Ensar Küçükaltan identified five key factors that threaten not only agriculture but also the entire ecosystem of the African continent: “rising temperatures, rapidly changing rainfall patterns, an increase in extreme weather events, and the spread of harmful bacteria and diseases”.
Speaking on the importance of East Africa, the head of Eighth Continent emphasized that Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda are considered the birthplace of quality coffee. According to him, Arabica is a very sensitive variety, easily reacting to the slightest climatic changes, temperature and even shade.
“Previously, drought in the Horn of Africa used to happen once every 10 to 15 years. Now, with rising temperatures and changing rainfall, these intervals are shrinking, and coffee plantations in Ethiopia are under serious threat,” the CEO said.
Kyucjukaltan explained that temperature and humidity have a direct impact on coffee ripening: higher temperatures accelerate the process, causing the coffee to lose its flavor and aroma. He also drew attention to the lack of shade. “Direct sun spoils the flavor of coffee, while the lack of shaded areas and the increase in pests have a negative impact on quality.”
However, the scientist remains optimistic that the area under coffee may shrink, prices may rise, but the cultural traditions will remain – people will still treat each other to a cup of the aromatic beverage.
