Sugar beet
By the end of September, the first third of the harvesting campaign, which began in the last days of August, is already behind us. There are further adjustments to the estimates of the potential yield.
At the very beginning of the season the situation looked quite bad. In April, after two waves of frosts beet growers had to reseed about 80-90% of the areas previously sown with sugar beet – this is more than 5 thousand hectares. As a result, according to optimists’ estimates, 12-13 thousand hectares are planted with sugar beet for the crop-2025 in Moldova, while pessimists estimate 11-11.5 thousand hectares. By and large, we can only state that compared to last year’s level, the area under sugar beet cultivation in the country has not significantly increased, but it has not decreased either.
This summer the last year’s temperature record was not broken, there were no prolonged periods with daytime temperatures of +40 degrees Celsius and higher. But periodically in June and July precipitation fell in the form of calm, not heavy rains, which is good for the development of sugar beet. As agronomists noted, by the beginning of the last month of summer beet plantations looked good – better than in the previous few years.
In August, Moldova was again hit by a severe drought. This is also the reason why the harvesting campaign started early. Beet yields in the fields harvested at that time were significantly lower than expected – about 35 tons/ha on average.
Thanks to the September rainfall, the situation has improved considerably. The beet root continues to gain weight. Due to this, according to Sudzucker Moldova employees, by the end of September the forecast of sugar beet yield in the raw zone of this company has significantly increased. It is not excluded that at the end of the harvesting campaign it will exceed 40 tons/ha. In the raw zone of the second sugar producing company, Moldova Zahar, the situation with yield is not worse.
By and large, as agronomists of large sugar beet producing companies say, the final indicators of beet production can both improve and worsen. By the end of September, Moldova will be hit by the first cold cyclone, which will bring the first autumn frosts. According to representatives of sugar companies, the cold weather will speed up the pace of beet harvesting. So far, only one third of the available combine fleet has been used, i.e. there are technical reserves.
But there are also risks. Increase in the rate of harvesting will be accompanied by an increase in beet stocks in bunches on the edges of beet fields and on cagat sites of sugar factories. In dry, cool weather beets are not stored poorly in the open air. However, increased moisture and thaws can provoke internal sap flow in the roots and, as a result, reduce the quality of the raw material and the final product – sugar.
In addition, precipitation in October can provoke root growth in unharvested beet fields, but reduce their sugar content and, as a result, sugar yield from such raw material.
Sugar
In spite of many variable factors, which can still significantly affect the end of the harvesting campaign and sugar beet processing season, sugar production in Moldova is likely to be in the range of 50-55 thousand tons. That is, it will exceed last year’s level (slightly more than 32 thousand tons).
With a high degree of probability, even this production volume will not cover the domestic demand in 2025-26 marketing year. As it was in the previous year. The capacity of the domestic market in the last few years, according to operators, varied from 60 to 70 thousand tons. And this is without taking into account Transnistria. Presumably, the region annually consumes about 10 thousand tons of this product.
It is very difficult to estimate sugar consumption in Moldova in more or less certain indicators in the current marketing year. On the one hand, the 2025 fruit harvest in Moldova, except for some types, is relatively small. Accordingly, the demand for sugar from the canning industry will be limited.
Local producers of sugar-containing beverages started to change (cheapen) their assortment due to the relatively high price of sugar in previous years. It is possible that this trend, if it slows down, will not reverse.
The same is true for candy manufacturers. Almost the only category of industrial consumers of sugar with progressive dynamics of demand is the producers of confectionery and bakery products that have entered the export markets for their products.
Market evolution
Two years ago, the European sugar market passed the “price peak”. By the end of the last marketing season, which ended at the end of August, prices were still falling. By this period, they had fallen below the €500/t level almost everywhere in Europe. The majority of the largest European beet sugar business operators either sharply reduced their beet sugar production profitability in the first half of 2025 or “went into negative territory”.
Against the backdrop of the industry’s financial problems, five sugar factories have closed in the EU since the beginning of this year. As a result, the area sown with sugar beet for the 2025 harvest has decreased by about 10%.
Demand in the European sugar market is also in a downward phase. This is partly due to a reduction in supply/demand for sugar-containing beverages and food products. The most sensitive loss in this regard is the decline in chocolate sales. And about 30% of sugar sales are indirectly related to cocoa bean sales.
Additional pressure on the European sugar market is exerted by the expansion of this product from Ukraine. Thus, in the 2023-24 marketing year, more than 1 million tons of Ukrainian sugar entered the EU. During the 2024-25 season, its exports decreased to 580 thousand tons. Nevertheless, Ukrainian supplies have increased sugar stocks and increased pressure on EU sugar market prices.
Since July, the EU authorities have reduced the preferential quota for sugar imports from Ukraine by 80%. Nevertheless, the country has the right to export 100 thousand tons of sugar to the European market duty-free next year. At the same time, according to market operators, “Ukrainian sugar producers have a significant potential for sustainability, they will ‘fit into the economy’ even if the price of selling their product for export is only 420-430 euros per ton”.
Despite the reduction in sugar beet plantings, the 2025 harvest of this crop will be high in many EU countries. That is, if sugar production in the bloc’s countries will be reduced, it will not be by much. As a result, the increase in sugar prices that emerged at the beginning of the new marketing year is unlikely to last the entire season and will be very large. Most likely, the expectations of European sugar producers that the sugar price will “break through the ceiling” of 600 euros per ton will not come true. Of course, if the “sugar balance” of the European Union is not corrected by powerful geopolitical factors.
What all this means for the sugar market of Moldova? Surprising as it may seem, if the “black swans” fly around the territory of the country without staying for wintering, no big changes will occur. The country’s own sugar resources will be not less, and most likely – more than in the last marketing year. Sugar imports are likely to be stable and predictable. The Euroquota and preferential quota under the WTO for sugar imports to Moldova for 2025 (about 7 thousand tons) will probably be chosen in full as soon as it opens – in the first two weeks of January, or even faster. Duty-free imports of sugar (Serbian) under the CEFTA free trade regime will continue, but will be moderate – not higher, but most likely significantly lower than the current summer level (1.6-1.8 thousand tons per month). Sugar prices will probably increase as the season progresses – but not strongly and smoothly.
