George Apostol, Maria Akbash
The ministry has released a draft medium-term budget forecast for 2026-2028. The document should promptly undergo the procedure of coordination in various departments and be submitted to the government for approval in the near future, as the legal procedure is becoming more complicated due to the approaching elections. On the basis of its indicators, the Ministry of Finance specialists will develop this year’s budget, as well as changes in tax and customs policy for the next year.
This document has become a reference point not only for managers, but also for business. It gives the general direction of movement and predictability, it is the basis for planning budget documents and development programs. The forecast is based on the macroeconomic analysis of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization (this year it was presented in March 2025), as well as on the budget approved for the current year.
So, by 2028, national public budget (NPB) revenues will increase by 30.7% compared to those approved for 2025, the authors of the document forecast. And in 2026 – by 10.6% compared to the current year. The Ministry of Finance plans to achieve this growth due to the gradual recovery of the economy, as well as due to measures of tax and customs policy and more efficient administration of revenues.
They are expected to grow by 18.1%, from 131.9 billion lei in 2026 to 155.8 billion lei in 2028. The revenues will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 7.8%. At the same time, revenues from taxes and fees will grow from 82.4 billion lei to 98 billion lei in 2026-2028. Their share in GDP will increase from 32.2% in 2025 to 33.6% in 2028. In general, according to the Ministry of Finance’s estimates, revenues from taxes on goods and services will constitute the main part of budget revenues, forming about 63% of total revenues. In the medium term, this group of revenues will grow by 8.7%.
In the next three years, the authorities plan to focus their efforts on stimulating economic growth through preserving the tax mechanisms in place when new jobs are opened. It is also about combating undeclared labor and non-payment of taxes, effective application of transfer pricing legislation provisions and, in general, implementation of BEPS minimum standards (a set of measures against tax base erosion – ed.) and measures to ensure tax discipline.
While the share of tax revenues will increase in the next three years, the share of national public budget expenditures in GDP will drop from 40.5% in 2025 to 39.6% in 2028. Expenditures will amount to 152.4 billion lei in 2026 (+6.7% against 2025), 165.3 billion lei in 2027 and 174.4 billion lei in 2028.
A serious increase in allocations is forecasted in the economic sector, which reflects the intention to support business, including the agricultural sector, as well as the development of energy and road infrastructure. Together, these areas are expected to grow 1.6 times in 2028 compared to 2025. However, the main share will still be spent on social protection (37.3% per year). At the same time, they are projected to grow by about 6.5-7.5% due to the mandatory annual indexation of social benefits and an increase in the number of their recipients.
As a result, the budget deficit will grow from 14.09 billion lei in 2025 to 21.9 billion lei in 2027 (5.2-5.4% of GDP). In 2028, it is planned to be reduced to 18.5 billion lei (4.2% of GDP). According to forecasts, compared to 2025, the external financing, intended both to support the state budget and donors’ investment projects, will increase, reaching 15 billion 854.2 million lei in 2028. As a share of GDP, this growth will amount to 0.3%. Financing for budget support will also increase by 0.3%.
The share of public debt in GDP will grow from 42.3% in 2026 to 46.8% in 2028. In nominal terms, its volume will increase from 161 billion lei in 2026 to 206 billion lei in 2028.
We asked businessmen to comment on how realistic the indicators forecasted by the Ministry of Finance are, especially with regard to tax revenues. Whether Moldova has an additional tax base and how it can be increased, we asked. Many interlocutors asked a counter question: how objective are the figures presented in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. And some directly pointed out their electoral character.
“We have long ago coped with the shadow segment of business in our sector, and as for the growth of tax revenues, it can be ensured mainly due to the growth of exports,” says Gheorghii Apostol, executive director of the Association of Manufacturers of Medicines of the Republic of Moldova. – Our domestic market has stagnated. In Moldova, about 80-90% of manufacturers to a greater or lesser extent work on the external market. And on it they face serious competition in the region. Our neighbors, including Ukraine, where war is being waged, are in a much more favorable position than we are because of lower prices for energy resources. The harmonization of Moldovan legislation with international legislation also adds to the tax burden. Among other things, because of the ecological levy. To increase the competitiveness of our enterprises, Moldova should join the PICS commonwealth, because the certificates of this organization open the way to the market of about 60 countries of the world, where they are automatically recognized. Companies will not need to prepare packages of documents for registration of medicines there. The country is already working in this direction. But it needs to be accelerated.
According to Maria Akbash, administrator of OLOI PAK SRL from Comrat (trademark “SANA”), there is a tax backlog in the country, especially in sectors supported by the state. “On a parity basis, the response of business should be appropriate,” she believes. – In agriculture today, it is palpable, especially in livestock farming. Our company, through participation in the AGRI project, has built a dairy farm in Tomay village, Ceadir-Lunga district. We invested about 50% of it, which is about $1 million, and the rest of the funds were received within the framework of the project. Thanks to this, our income practically doubled, and tax payments, including payroll taxes, increased accordingly.
It is necessary to analyze the possibilities of tax growth in crop production, where the state provides favorable subsidies, as well as to regulate lease relations in the use of agricultural land. At the same time, the entrepreneur notes a particularly “painful” problem with personnel. It is necessary to work in this direction, because “everything else can be found or purchased”.
