As it is known, the reason for the adoption of a package of cost-cutting measures in Romania lies in the high budget deficit, because of which it cannot borrow from the EU. The Romanian authorities explain the adoption of anti-crisis measures by the fact that in recent years the country has spent more than it could afford. In 2024, the budget deficit there amounted to 9.4% of GDP. It is planned that in 2025 it will be reduced to 7%.
In addition to the increase in the VAT rate, the special additional tax of 2% on the turnover of financial institutions has been doubled to 4%. This change is applied retroactively from July 1, 2025. At the same time, the 2% rate still applies to financial institutions whose net assets are less than 0.2% of the total assets of the Romanian banking sector.
The additional turnover tax will apply until the end of 2026. Romania currently has two turnover taxes with rates of 1% and 3%. The 3% turnover tax is paid by companies with an annual turnover of more than EUR 60,000 but not more than EUR 250,000. Starting January 1, 2026, this limit will be reduced to €100,000.
For dividends received after January 1, 2026, the tax will be raised from 10% to 16%. Gambling tax is raised from 3% to 4% for winnings up to MDL 10,000. Excise taxes on tobacco products, alcoholic beverages and fuel are increased.
The increase in VAT rates has already caused price increases in Romanian retail chains. This will inevitably affect the purchasing power of the population in Romania, so it will indirectly affect all suppliers. And Moldovan companies among them, experts say. Today Romania is Moldova’s main trade partner. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, the volume of trade with Romania increased from $1.6 billion in 2018 to $2.7 billion in 2024.
The Romanian economy may suffer because some companies may move business to countries with a more attractive business climate. As in the past, Romanian entrepreneurs opened businesses in neighboring Bulgaria because of VAT. On the other hand, under the current conditions, Moldova can provide more competitive conditions for doing business, experts emphasize.
It becomes a bit more attractive due to more gentle taxation. And if the business is not connected with big investments and transfer of production, its transfer to Moldova is possible. Or to Bulgaria, because other factors are also important, comments entrepreneur Petr Caireac, head of the company “Iugintertrans”, which includes a network of bakeries “Milina”.
“For the Moldovan economy it can be a certain advantage,” he says. – Our products will be a little cheaper, so for geographical reasons there may be an increase in the flow of tourists from Romania visiting Moldova. Inclusively, fuel may be cheaper, and they will buy it from us. Now Romanians go to Bulgaria to refuel. So in this respect, the Moldovan economy should get a small boost”.
Recently, Milina opened a company in Romania to promote its products. But its activity will not be directly affected, Petr Caireac suggests. “Since the main change concerns VAT, we will pay 2% more VAT when importing products,” he explains. – And since it has increased for everyone, the Romanian consumer will suffer. The purchasing power will decrease, so, theoretically, sales may drop by 2%. But since we export foodstuffs and daily consumption, people are more likely to deny themselves something less necessary. Although it is difficult to make predictions today. There are too many factors that can affect the market”.
In recent years, many Moldovan companies have opened businesses in Romania. “All large construction firms work there, transport companies have opened subdivisions in their neighbors,” the entrepreneur continues. – We do not work in Romania, but we have registered a company in Bulgaria, which is basically the same thing, because from an EU country you can transport goods all over Europe without restrictions and permits. Basically, it is a single market. That is why many Moldovans open companies in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, as taxation there is slightly lower than in the countries of the so-called “old” Europe. This business should not be significantly affected by the tightening of tax policy, as they work mainly in Western Europe, respectively, without VAT”.
Experts note that our neighbors are already starting to register with us. Not large companies, because it is more difficult for capital-intensive industries to enter, but companies from the IT sector, for example. Especially in the IT park it can be felt. Moldovans who moved to Romania earlier are probing the ground. They may be the first, and others will follow them.
There used to be an income tax exemption for programmers. Now it has been canceled, and they will pay 10%, so Moldova has become more favorable for companies. In the park the process started in July. Specialists who worked remotely also started to move. There are many freelancers, especially since amendments to the legislation on digital nomads and the Law on Freelancers have been adopted.
“Any crisis is about challenges and opportunities,” says Andrei Jizdan, director of Jizdan & Partners. – Two weeks ago I communicated with our compatriot who lives in Romania and runs a business there. The changes are significant for him, as dividends will increase by 6% from next year. And to withdraw the money he earned, he has to pay 16% tax on income and 16% on dividends. This is a lot, so some Romanian entrepreneurs are already looking for the opportunity to open a company in Moldova. Especially those who have Moldovan citizenship. The only problem they may face is the need to prove the origin of the money. There may be questions when buying a house, for example. So far, there is no data exchange between Moldova and Romania.
As for the entrepreneurs who will continue to work in Romania, in order to maintain the volume of sales, they will have to cover part of the VAT in order not to increase the price of products. The VAT exemption for the purchase of the first home will be removed, and this will reduce the volume of construction. The VAT increase will hit HoReCa hard. Until recently in this sector it was at the level of 6%, recently it was raised to 8%, and now – to 11%.
