Vyacheslav Ionitsa
These are the main data of the National Bureau of Statistics, which summarized the results of foreign trade for 4 months of this year.
Only in April, exports decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to $265.6 million, while imports increased by 10.6% to $858.8 million. Accordingly, the trade deficit increased by 22.5% year-on-year to $593.2 million.
Such a foreign trade deficit indicates serious problems in the economy and the curtailment of production of products competitive in international markets,” argues Doctor of Economics Mikhail Poisik. – Last year export/import ratio was 1:2.5, now it is already 1:3.1. Besides, about a quarter of Moldovan exports abroad are re-exports, in which there is practically no added value. All this threatens to “collapse”, the collapse of the economy”.
According to the expert, the fall in exports was inevitable, as we have given up cheap raw materials. “Both in agriculture and industry, our manufacturers are forced to use expensive components that make the products uncompetitive,” says Mikhail Poisik. – As a result, even in the domestic market it is gradually replaced by imports, and domestic companies simply stop working, for example, in the clothing, footwear, leather goods industry (Artima, Zorile, etc.). At the same time, we continue to successfully export cheap labor. Young people get an education, secondary or higher, and leave immediately. As a result, the ratio of pensioners to the working population is approaching 1:1, while the minimum is considered to be 1:2.5. Let me remind you that during the Soviet regime it was 1:3.5, at that time the state could afford to retire women at 55 and men at 60.
It should be noted that the increase in the trade deficit was mainly (99%) due to trade with EU countries. First of all, such as Romania, Germany and Poland. The drop in exports to Romania amounted to 24%, to Germany – more than twice, Poland – twice, Bulgaria – by 15%, France – by 7%, Spain – by 70%. In addition, supplies to the USA fell by 36%, Russia – by 23%, to Kazakhstan – 2 times, etc.
In general, the fall to the EU countries amounted to 17%, to the CIS – 21%, and in supplies to other countries there was an increase of 4.4%.
By groups of goods, electrical appliances and their parts accounted for 15.7% of total exports, oilseeds and fruits – 14.6%, vegetables and fruits – 9.8%, cereals – 8.2%, clothing and accessories – 7.8%, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages – 6.8%, furniture – 3.8%, fuel – 2.8%.
Exports of such products as vegetable oils – 69.9%, cereals – 33.9% and industrial machinery and apparatus – 17.9% fell the most.
On the other hand, imports from EU member states increased. Imports of goods from the EU-27 in January-April 2025 totaled $1.9 billion (33.5% more than in the same period in 2024), taking a share of total imports of 55.2%, 7.1 percentage points more than in January-April 2024.
“When signing the Association Agreement, we pledged to zero all import duties on goods from the EU for 10 years,” continues Mikhail Poisik. – And so it happened. But quotas, duties and other non-tariff restrictions continue to be imposed on our competitive products in the EU. They do not tolerate competitors for their own producers.
Imports of goods from CIS countries (without Ukraine) in January-April 2025 amounted to $115.5 million (3.7% less than in the same period of 2024), which is equivalent to a share of 3.4% in total imports, decreasing by 0.7 p.p. compared to January-April 2024.
Imports from third countries in January-April decreased by 6.4 p.p., down to 41.4% of the total volume.
IDIS Viitorul expert Veaceslav Ionita noted that Moldovan exports have been declining continuously for 14 months, falling from a peak of $4.3 billion in 2022 to $3.4 billion (annualized) in April 2025.
“The decline is deep and systemic, affecting all key sectors of the economy. Agriculture has suffered huge losses, especially in fruits and vegetables, and the only exception – sunflower – is exported as raw material, without added value,” Ionitsa said.
In his opinion, the food industry, particularly sunflower oil exports, once a pillar of the economy, has collapsed. Re-exports to Ukraine, artificially stimulated by the war (oil products, etc.), have gradually disappeared. The automobile industry is in sharp decline amid problems in the European car industry.
In parallel, imports are steadily growing, reaching an annualized value of $9.54 billion in April 2025, and at current rates may exceed $10 billion for the first time in history.
The reason, according to Ionitsa, is an unbalanced economic model in which money from remittances and foreign grants and loans is not channeled into investment or production, but fuels the consumption of imported products.
“Moldova’s economy does not generate added value, but only redistributes external resources toward consumption,” Ionita explains.
The lack of a coherent industrial and trade policy means that every additional leu turns into a trade deficit, rather than going to the development of local production.
Alexander Slusari, former deputy speaker of parliament, agrees with him. “It is obvious that if the current economic model does not change, the country will collapse,” he says. – The biggest tragedy will be if this collapse happens under the flag of European integration, with which amateurs sit in the economic sphere today. They are concerned about the speed of checking more documents, not about increasing the competitiveness of local producers by attracting special funds”.
