This tactical measure is designed to: reduce pressure on the prices of the Turkish domestic market in the run-up to the grain harvest by local agricultural producers; ensure the continuity of grain supplies to the Turkish grain market in the off-season; and support the stability of the Turkish livestock and processing industry.
Outside the temporary duty-free quota (for the mentioned 0.5 million tons), the customs tariff on corn imports to Turkey is 130%. At the same time, according to international forecasts, Turkey will produce 7.8 million tons of corn in the 2025-26 season. Turkey will produce 7.8 million tons of corn with the domestic market demand of 8.9 million tons. That is, the estimated deficit of this grain, filled by imports, will be about 1.1 million tons. Almost half of this volume of goods will be imported into the country already in July.
Yuri Rizha, an expert in agro-marketing, believes that such short-term market liberalization measures for quota (and relatively small) imports of agricultural products are introduced when suppliers and beneficiaries are already known in principle. In this case, there is a good chance that the July quota on corn supplies to Turkey will be used mainly by Ukrainian grain traders.
This is not very good news for Moldovan grain traders. Since they have the right to supply corn to the Turkish market under the free trade agreement between Turkey and the Republic of Moldova. The duty-free quota opens the Turkish grain market to the most competitive players in the Black Sea region. In this regard, Moldova often loses to Ukraine. Meanwhile, according to the above-mentioned expert, the marketable balance of last year’s corn in the Republic of Moldova is about 100 thousand tons.
