Kaya Callas
Trump’s goal is to build an authoritarian, anti-liberal world order. To do this, he needs to do three things: dismantle the liberal state in his own country; create a business alliance with the world’s major anti-liberal regimes (Russia, India, China, Turkey, Israel), at the cost of marginalizing the EU; and build an impregnable fortress called North America by absorbing Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal.
This fortress will be fenced with duties, and its master will be able to strike at anyone, anytime, without the need to consult with allies. Trump wants to build a world order dominated by nationalism and force, that is, to restore the status quo that Europe and America rejected after World War II.
Trump’s primary and most important goal, however, is to dismantle the American liberal state. He can do this without paying any attention to Congress, which is completely controlled by the party of his cult of personality (the Republicans), and he doesn’t even need to abolish freedom of the press. The harassment, intimidation and blackmail of the big media is enough.
If we talk about the second (international) component of MAGA (“Make America Great Again”), Trump realizes that despite its superpower status, the US needs strong partners to destroy the UN-based world order and replace it with an anti-liberal order in which the strong will be right and human rights, international law and climate agreements will be a dead letter. It is already easy to imagine that the U.S., Russia and China could hold a summit to form such a new order, with each fighting for its own “living space” (“Lebensraum”), trading countries and resources as pawns. For example, the Kremlin needs capital, while Trump needs critical minerals and other resources with which to reward his oligarchs.
This patron-client relationship model is already familiar, as it is deeply entrenched in Russia, Turkey, India, Hungary, and several other countries. The biggest obstacle is again Europe with its pesky regulations – social, environmental and anti-corruption. And it is Europe that stands in the way of Trump’s third goal – building fortress North America. After all, Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark.
Given all these goals of Trump, Europe must realize that it is on its own. It is striking that its leaders are not even participating in the talks on the future of Ukraine being held in Saudi Arabia. Perhaps the reason is that Russia demanded it and Trump happily agreed.
However, Europe cannot be said to be completely innocent. Most of its leaders, with the exception of French President Emmanuel Macron, have long refused to recognize the truth – the strategic vulnerability of the EU.
With America now clearly echoing the Russian side, Europe is trying to organize support for Ukraine. But beyond words and intentions, huge obstacles stand in its way. First, few European states are capable of making military commitments, with those closer to the front lines unwilling to exhaust their forces defending another country’s territory. Second, if U.S. aid is withdrawn, European military involvement becomes virtually impossible. Finally, many European countries are simply not ready to risk an open conflict with America if it opposes European military intervention. The example of Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni is illustrative: she continues to support Ukraine but does not want to quarrel with the United States, especially amid concerns that the Ukrainian crisis is helping France to lead in Europe.
And even if European forces can somehow be mobilized, it is unclear how they will be used. The idea that European armies will be able to guarantee a cease-fire is not credible. It looks much more realistic to have Europe provide ground support to Ukrainian troops in the event of Russian aggression. But it will be a long time before such a project sees the light of day.
Europe is alone and unprepared. It is the worst possible world. But it must not give up.
Zaki Laidi
Professor at Sciences Po Institute for Policy Studies, formerly Special Advisor to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
© Project Syndicate, 2025.
www.project-syndicate.org
