A little earlier, Moldovan mass media had broadcast the “sudden” news – in retail, i.e. in the markets and in some stores in Chisinau, pork prices went up by 15-25%. Although a few days before this unpleasant (for consumers) event, the representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry MAIA and the Food Safety Agency ANSA optimistically claimed that everything was under control and that there were no grounds for price increase. Once again, “it never happened, but it turned out as usual”.
Last week LP suggested(https://logos-pres.md/ru/novosti/chumnogo-podorozhaniya-svininy-ne-izbezhat/) that information about the mass slaughter of pigs due to ASF on two large pig farms will almost certainly cause a significant increase in pork prices. At least speculative. The authorities have responded to media reports of a sharp rise in retail pork prices by hinting at sanctions. In particular, the Competition Council said that it would analyze the market for anti-competitive practices, including cartel agreements, noting in passing that it has no right to limit prices.
Further, it can be assumed that bazaar traders and store retailers, having sharply raised retail prices for pork, will, according to the “pendulum principle” (and under the threat of inspections with consequences), no less sharply for some time bring prices down a bit. Moreover, the merchants themselves note that the increase of pork price by 20-30 lei/kg for the average household consumer was critical – the demand has sharply decreased. And it is already the Great Lent and there are still more than two weeks until the Easter feast.
However, on the other hand, it is not necessarily that the merchants will be afraid of their high prices and give back sharply. Surplus of expensive pork before the pre-holiday frenzy may well lie in refrigerated warehouses. Or, in the extreme case, they can be sent for industrial processing already now. By the way, producers of sausages and other meat products have already begun to experience a shortage of raw materials.
According to the PIIPCstaff , the heads of some meat processing companies – members of the patronate – claim that since last week they have been notified by pig farms that the next requests for raw materials will not be fully satisfied. For example, the director of one of the large factories producing sausages and meat delicacies noted that with a weekly demand of 30 tons of pork this week he will receive from his main partner-supplier only 16 tons of this raw material.
Is the increase in retail prices for pork connected with its very quickly formed deficit at meat processing factories? It is not excluded. On the one hand, a significant share of pork supplies to markets and retail stores is provided by households and small pig farms. These categories of suppliers are not directly affected by the ASF problems at the two largest pig farms. At the same time, not all meat processors receive pork from pork companies whose farms have been affected by ASF. On the other hand, why don’t all pork market operators decide to make a quick buck on consumers’ fears that “everything will become more expensive”?
By the way, knowledgeable people claim that large pig farms sell their goods not only to meat processors, but also to relatively small intermediaries supplying city markets and stores. It is possible that these intermediaries, taking advantage of the sharp increase in retail prices, have increased the supply of pork to retailers in order to make money. In this regard, processors immediately felt some (apparently momentary) difficulties with the supply of this raw material. Is it possible that the current shortage of pork, as well as the current increase in its price, is speculative in nature?
Nevertheless, according to the PIIPC patronage, certainly not speculative, but systemic deficit of pork on the market of industrial meat raw materials in Moldova will surely appear right after the Easter vacations. When the market will definitely not receive pork due to the forced slaughter of more than 100 thousand pigs with ASF disease.
The problem is that there will be no more or less cheap imported pork to replace it by then. As of today, out of the duty-free Euroquota (5.5 thousand tons), less than 1 thousand tons have not been chosen by importers for RM. It is quite possible that this volume of goods is on its way and will arrive on the local market in the nearest future. Accordingly, the quota will be closed. Further pork will be imported to Moldova with payment of high customs duty. Obviously, this will affect the prices of finished products and consumer demand for them.
In this regard, PIIPC employees assume that the Patronat will be more persistent in proposing to the Government and Parliament of the Republic of Moldova to decide on free (duty-free) import of pork, at least for a short period of time – not for one or two years, but at least for a few months.
